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Before you Trade Today: Know the Economic Calendar! Also See This Weeks Most Anticipated Earnings (Note: Red Indicates an Earnings Loss [Not Miss] Consensus), & Yesterdays Insider Buys.

INSIDER BUYS

TODAYS COMMENTARY Get a Cup of Coffee & Enjoy Catching Up! If you aren’t reading this daily you are missing out on a wealth of information that could prevent unforced & unnecessary trading errors.

NOTE: I am keeping the commentary from yesterday with some minor modifications. I spent most of my time revamping the BUY LIST & I think the information below deserves to be considered again!

TRADING THIS WEEK: Outside of war there’s not much that can ruin our day this week on the economic calendar. … well … relative to the weeks we’ve experienced. What am I going to do? I’m going to use this as a time to rearrange the StockTips BUY LIST. Though we are still beating the hell out of SPY, I think I can do better. So if the market continues to pump, expect me to begin removing some plays. What will I replace them with? Some seriously boring shit & safe strategies.

LOOKING DEEP INTO THE FUTURE:

Folks, the future is looking bleak. Consider the following:

1. Rising inflation (7.9% YoY Feb). March is certain to be much higher. There isn't even a consensus estimate yet. Forecast sits at 8.2%. It would not surprise me if we hit 10% YoY inflation August-November.

2. Record High Gas Prices (The President refuses to meet with oil executives [WAIT BREAKING NEWS], open federal lands for new leases/permits, & the Saudi's wont take his phone calls). If you've seen the financials on these oil companies you will understand that they have plenty of debt. They aren't going to finance more drilling with politicians putting a sunset on their industry or with an administration that refuses to work with them.

3. The Fed is absolutely reactive (out to lunch) on inflation, raising interest rates only by 0.25% (M2 Money supply has increased by roughly 1/3rd since the initial covid lockdowns). The Fed will be raising rates right as consumers are getting priced out & businesses will need credit to bridge reduced sales.

4. The war in Ukraine has disrupted the market for fertilizers, grain, oil, steel, neon gas & more. Russia indicates seizing assets of U.S. companies that leave.

5. China seems to be firmly in the Russian camp (implications on Taiwan and possible sanctions on China).

6. COVID outbreaks & lockdowns in China.

7. We have no clue how many firms (national or international) have exposure to Russian markets (trading halted for weeks now) with margin backed by U.S. institutions.

8. Producer Price Index is up over 10% YoY.

9. Retail Sales came in 0.1 under consensus (0.4), indicating consumers are being priced out of the market.

10. Supply chains are still gummed up (Transportation is getting more expensive)

11. The semiconductors shortage is bottlenecking a number of industries.

12. One more geopolitical disaster ... whether it be China (Taiwan), or Iran (Israel).. may very well send us into instant recession.

13. NATO is backing Ukraine with weapons which may sound great at first, but such an endeavor greatly increases the risk that Putin will resort to desperate measures. He isn't accustomed to losing (his credibility is at stake) and he can only send so many troops through the meat grinder before he starts to seriously consider small tactical nukes. The threat alone would be disasters for markets. Think hard on this one. You know damn well if the U.S. was in such a situation the American people would demand such a use of force.

Summary: No one wants to say the (R) word but I will. Prices can only increase but so high before people economize on their necessities & cut back on their wants. I know I'm doing this already. The war in Ukraine has exacerbated inflation even further. Our oil/energy situation is nothing more but a self inflicted wound that will also aggravate inflation. Double digit inflation is a real threat and it won't just affect you in ways that your think. Sure, everything will be more expensive and sure, wages will slowly increase over time. You will certainly economize. But what you aren't watching is taxes. For example, lets say you got a pay increase. Congrats, not only are you paying more for everything anyway, but you're paying more income taxes too (perhaps in a new tax bracket). Buying expensive goods? Higher sales tax! You're car/property is worth more? Great! Higher property taxes. Governments love inflation because its a tax no politician needs to vote on. However people hate inflation because their real spending power gets destroyed. And when your spending power gets destroyed you don't buy as much. And when you don't buy as much, companies make less (Though they're paying more for labor and inputs). And when companies make less they start to economize. And when they economize people get laid off. And when people get laid off they don't spend as much .... you see where I'm going here.

This may never happen as dramatic as I'm making it out to be. The point is ... for the love of God, be careful in this market! There's nothing wrong with safe 1-2% monthly return in this market. There's nothing wrong with buying puts, or selling deep in the money covered calls on already profitable positions. Think of yourselves, think of your families, and for God sakes, trade safely & make wise decisions. A small loss is better than a catastrophic loss in this market. There are plenty of ways to almost guarantee yourself a 2% monthly profit with relatively little risk.

There is simply too much uncertainty out there, domestically, economically, & geopolitically, for any big monied institutions to buy seriously into this market. You know they're hedging! Trade accordingly.

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Significant News Heading into 03.22.2022:

• Stock futures rise after Dow snaps 5-day winning streak, traders weigh Powell inflation comments

• Hong Kong leads gains in Asia, rising 3% as Alibaba shares pop 11%

• European stocks muted as Ukraine war, inflation weigh on sentiment

• 10-year Treasury yield tops 2.34% following Powell’s remarks

• Oil is likely to remain volatile and expensive as world deals with supply shortages

• ‘Red flags’ as some China property developers say they can’t release earnings on time

• Washington’s ‘trigger-happy’ sanctions may push countries away from the dollar, says think tank

REMOVED FROM THE BUY LIST TODAY: UFI FLEX THO AOUT TLYS & 50% of TITN REMOVED FROM THE BUY LIST THIS MORNING (NOTE: I’m NOT Done Folks!)

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PAID CONTENT IN THE PAYWALL BELOW:

• 17 Stocks near/at/above the Buy Zone (Waiting to Swing).

• 25 Stocks on the Price Based Assessment Watchlist

• 7 Stocks on the Stocks Under $20 List (Read the Warning/Disclaimer)

• 6 Stocks on the Highly Speculative Highly Volatile Small Cap List (Read the Warning/Disclaimer)

👉CLICK HERE TO SEE THE DETAILS OF EVERY STOCK ON THE BUY LIST (AND SEE THE PRICE ASSESSMENT BASED WATCHLIST / THE STOCKS UNDER $20 LIST & THE HIGHLY SPECULATIVE LIST)

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