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Before you Trade Today: Know the Economic Calendar! Also See This Weeks Most Anticipated Earnings (Note: Red Indicates an Earnings Loss [Not Miss] Consensus), & Yesterdays Insider Buys.

INSIDER BUYS

TODAYS COMMENTARY Get a Cup of Coffee & Enjoy Catching Up! If you aren’t reading this daily you are missing out on a wealth of information that could prevent unforced & unnecessary trading errors.

BUY LIST UPDATE: Added another options idea in the paid subscriber section below, but still not adding any more stocks to the BUY LIST for the same aforementioned reasons as yesterday. Beware of the market posturing for those inflation numbers on the 12th!

TRADING TODAY: We are 6 full trading days from the inflation report for March (Monday 12 April). This will be the first CPI that will fully account for the war in Ukraine. The inflation rate for March was forecasted to come in at 8.2%. However the consensus analyst estimate, which was just published, calls for 8.3%. I think this is low! Remember that inflation increased 0.8% YoY last October & the markets weren’t nearly as rattled by the issues then (supply chains & semiconductor shortages), as they are by the war & the worlds reaction to Ukraine today. The current 8.3% consensus is 1.7% below double digit inflation, & only 0.4% above Februarys 7.9% YoY inflation.

I predicted earlier that we would get close to double digit inflation by the July/August reports. We would need inflation to go up 0.425 each month to get there. Will it happen? Well energy costs are still expected to increase, food costs are expected to increase, there is some serious question about the availability of semiconductors, commodity prices are skyrocketing, & Europeans are now competing heavy for US supplies of both commodities & goods/services in the wake of moving away from Russia. Of course, Ukrainian industry is out of service & many countries (like Hungary) are restricting exports of essential commodities/goods (like grains & fertilizers).

Regardless of how high inflation gets, it’s getting hard for firms to price their current goods & services & pre-order their inputs while continually competing for workers in a scarce labor market. Businesses will most certainly need to charge an uncertainty premium for their goods depending on how competitive their respective markets are. Moreover the prices paid for delivery amid the commodity futures have yet to fully hit the goods on the shelf. Remember that higher inflation will spark a more aggressive Fed, & the markets will not like this. Adding even more fuel to the fire we have FOMC minutes reported on Wednesday.

Additionally this week we have the Balance of Trade (Forecast -$88b Consensus -$88.5b That’s a 1 Trillion $$ annual imbalance folks) , the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Forecast 5.81 Consensus 5.8 Service sector growth has slowed considerably), & FOMC Minutes (Where we get to read the transcript from the last Fed meeting).

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Significant News Heading into 04.04.2022:

• European Stocks, U.S. Futures Rise, Treasuries Dip: Markets Wrap

• Chinese tech stocks in Hong Kong jump as Hang Seng index rises 2%

• European markets cautious amid talk of further Russia sanctions

• Dimon says confluence of inflation, Ukraine war may ‘dramatically increase risks ahead’ for U.S.

• Twitter shares soar more than 25% after Elon Musk takes 9% stake in social media company

• Treasury yields invert as investors look ahead to Fed minutes

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PAID CONTENT IN THE PAYWALL BELOW:

• 11 Stocks near/at/above the Buy Zone (Waiting to Swing).

• 25 Stocks on the Price Based Assessment Watchlist

• 5 Stocks on the Stocks Under $20 List (Read the Warning/Disclaimer)

• 6 Stocks on the Highly Speculative Highly Volatile Small Cap List (Read the Warning/Disclaimer)

• 4 Stocks on the short possibilities list

👉CLICK HERE TO SEE THE DETAILS OF EVERY STOCK ON THE BUY LIST (AND SEE THE PRICE ASSESSMENT BASED WATCHLIST / THE STOCKS UNDER $20 LIST & THE HIGHLY SPECULATIVE LIST)

LOGIN INSTRUCTIONS: You will need to login to see the detailed list. The “email login link” will send the link to login directly to your inbox (Click the link & it will automatically log you in). You can also choose the “login with password” option. You will need to set up a substack password for this option.

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