The Daily Coach - The NFL Draft and Shoshin
The NFL Draft and ShoshinThe success rate of drafting talent is about the same as when teams relied on the Sporting News during the 1950s.
The NFL Draft is a little more than one week away — and teams are spending millions and millions of dollars to make great picks that will transform their organizations. But they often fall well short. As with any decision-making, model bias plays a huge part in making poor choices. Additionally, overconfidence in our abilities based on past experiences also leads to mistakes. The success rate of drafting talent is about the same as when teams relied on the Sporting News during the 1950s to randomly select players. Why hasn’t the forecasting of talent improved with the advancement of technology? Seventeen years ago, economists Richard Thaler and Cade Massey set out to study the history of the draft. They analyzed where different players were chosen and then compared the order to the players’ later performance. Thaler and Massey discovered that despite the time and money that football teams devoted to the draft, they weren’t very effective at predicting who would be the best. They concluded that there is only a 52 percent chance that a player picked first is better than a player picked at the same position later. In essence, NFL teams would be as effective with a coin toss as they are pouring millions of dollars into scouting. Perhaps one of the reasons for the lack of advancement is a Zen Buddhism concept called Shoshin. Shoshin is a belief that:
NFL teams believe they’re experts. They continue with the same processes they always have, never examining different possibilities or expressing fear they might be wrong. They won’t go against conventional wisdom, despite the fact conventional wisdom has proven to not be effective. Teams never adopt a beginner’s mind or apply Shoshin to their outdated unsuccessful methods. They fail in large part to do the following three things:
Teams have worked hard to improve their decision-making processes, but maybe it’s time to look for more possibilities in the data collection process. This might be what really helps drive better decisions. Please forward and share this email with your friends, family & colleagues. |
Older messages
4 Lessons From a Baseball Trailblazer
Tuesday, April 19, 2022
When our opportunities are extremely limited, sometimes we just have to take whatever we can find.
Texas Football and Culture Battles
Monday, April 18, 2022
De-recruiting always begins in four ways.
Sunday Thinking
Sunday, April 17, 2022
The bright sunshine of my own being lights my path and shows my way!
Truth Telling + Recommended Reading
Saturday, April 16, 2022
Too often, we allow the fear of failure, the anxiousness of the unknown, and our own self-doubt cripple our ability to merely get started.
The Teen Who Couldn't Find the Basket
Tuesday, April 12, 2022
Few of us really have the patience and the self-confidence to look bad at something we care about.
You Might Also Like
Free Kindle Book by Jim Melvin • Award-winning Fantasy • Do You Believe in Monsters? (Dark Circles Trilogy Book 2)
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Dark Circles is the winner of seven prestigious international awards. Welcome to ContentMo's
The Hidden Reference to the Beatles in Old Macs
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Sosumi!
Learn to Code, in 1 Hour, For Free
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Learn to code In 1 hour For free (this email keeps getting better, right?) Take this 1 hour course and see what it's like to code in sheets. coupon code: D79DA29F5CFF3755560F code expires in 3
🤝 What do biz buyers like to ask biz owners?
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
Plus: 6 NEW things we're hearing on Main Street, how to retain employees, and more... Hey Biz-Buyers, This is where we share some of the best insights, tips, and stories from Main Street and our
Best CMS for SEO: 10 Platforms Compared
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
Discover the top 10 CMS of 2024 reviewed and tested for flawless SEO experience Hi Reader, Want to run your site on a CMS like WordPress or Shopify? I've got some hints to help you make a choice.
Celebrate World Book Day 🎉 Free • KU • Paperback Book Deals • Fiction & Non-fiction
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
Today is World Book Day, traditionally a great time to find new books. Fiction and Non-fiction
The Invisible Wall Around Most of Manhattan
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
It's an "eruv"
🧙♂️ New mic I travel with
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
gunna take over the world now
Death of Followers Leads to Good Business
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
Who cares about followers? Entrepreneurs don't need to.
🍀 time to forage for inspiration?
Monday, April 22, 2024
How + why to find inspiration when it's been lacking. View in browser The first single from my new album, Patas de Problemas (Troublepaws) is out now! 😻 🎧 Check it out! Hi Reader, When inspiration