CLICK HERE TO SEE THE STOCKTIPS RECORD

WE’RE ON YOUTUBE NOW! See HERE, HERE, & HERE (Yeah … I’m REALLY excited about this).

Follow on Twitter

YouTube

Before you Trade Today: Know the Economic Calendar! Also See This Weeks Most Anticipated Earnings (Note: Red on the Earnings Calendar Indicates an Earnings Loss [Not Miss] Consensus), & Yesterdays Insider Buys. NEVER BE SURPRISED BY EASILY ANTICIPATED MARKET BREAKING NEWS. That’s our goal here.

TODAYS COMMENTARY Get a Cup of Coffee & Enjoy Catching Up! If you aren’t reading this daily you are missing out on a wealth of information that could prevent unforced & unnecessary trading errors.

BUY LIST UPDATE: Naturally there is little to add to the BUY LIST in this market. Nothing, & I mean NOTHING seems safe. Stocks are overvalued, & to the extent that some industries are bullish, there are alternative risks as a result of war, OPEC, the Fed, & Shanghai lockdowns. HOWEVER … I am making some headway on the short list. For now, I have 5 options on the Short List under the Price Assessment Based Watchlist. Indeed I knew I should have added TTCF as a short to the BUY LIST, but I needed confirmation on the underlying economic conditions. I believe I have that now after carefully tracking this seasons earnings. Stand by folks.

INFLATION INVENTORIES & RETAILER EARNINGS: Walmart & Target both recently reported earnings. Walmart made record revenue but missed analyst EPS consensus by 12%. Target similarly enjoyed record revenue, but missed analyst EPS consensus by 28.6%. In short, despite enjoying the same or higher revenue as the same quarter year prior, Walmart & Target scored lower Earnings Per Share than the same quarter the year prior (WMT -23% YoY EPS / TGT -40% YoY EPS). Walmart reported that their customers were “switching from gallons of milk to half gallons,” & "switching" from products in deli, lunch meat, dairy, and bacon to lower-cost items. Target reported “lower-than-expected sales in discretionary categories.” ROSS, another large discount retailer, came in shy of the previous years record revenue, missed analyst EPS consensus by but 3%, & YoY EPS came in at -28%. ROSS assessed “the health of our customer, they're being squeezed to full -- food and fuel prices with inflation there, means they have less to spend on discretionary items."

WMT & TGT are what happens when you move heaven & earth to keep your inventories full during a supply chain crisis resulting in paying more for the same stuff, only to realize once prices reach a zenith that suddenly you’re having trouble selling your overpriced stuff. Trust me when I tell you they want to pass the cost on to the consumer. However they can’t. Their inventories are full with merchandise they can’t move at higher prices & remain competitive. There is only so much the consumer can take in price increases. So where do retailers take the hit? In the profit margin!

I’ve noted this trend throughout this earnings season. Companies enjoy record revenues, although significantly lower EPS than the same quarter last year. This is the derogatory affect of inflation. Prices are increasing on the store shelves, but so too are energy costs, shipping costs, labor costs, utility costs, construction costs, & other inputs. The same goes for the consumer, whereas wages are going up, but buying power is faltering. And we are nowhere near out of the woods. In fact, this earnings season is but a taste of things to come.

Remember that while inflation was already chipping away at consumer buying power prior to the War in Ukraine, prior to the the supply constraints & the sanctions thereof, & prior to the China covid lockdowns, THIS EARNINGS SEASON REPRESENTS ONLY A PARTIAL EFFECT OF THESE INFLATIONARY PRESSURES. Putin invaded the Ukraine on February 24th. China began their lockdowns on March 28th. This earnings season reflects a reporting period primarily between Jan 1st & March 31st. This means the earnings you see reflect conditions that encompass but 36 days of Ukraine & 3 days of Shanghai Lockdowns. Now you can add 15 to 30 days depending on how each company differs in quarterly reporting periods, but on the whole, this holds true. Particularly when we account for the fact that in many aspects these events took a while to effect economic conditions. The company earnings we see today reflect but a portion of the War in Ukraine & the China lockdowns ... which will both be represented in all their glory NEXT earnings season.

And I didn’t even mention the effects of Fed rate hikes & offloading the balance sheet.

UPCOMING MARKET MOVING ECONOMIC NEWS:

• 1000ET Tuesday May 24th: April New Home Sales (Consensus 0.58m)

• 1220ET Tuesday May 24th: Fed Chair Powell Speech

• 0830ET Wednesday May 25th: April Durable Goods Orders MoM (Consensus 0.5%)

• 1400ET Wednesday May 25th: FOMC Minutes (This Will Move Markets)

• 0830ET Thursday May 26th: GDP Growth Rate Q1 2nd Estimate (Consensus -1.4%)

• 0830ET Friday May 27th: April Personal Spending MoM (Consensus 0.7%)

• 0830ET Friday May 27th: April Personal Income MoM (Consensus 0.6%)

The two items that have the largest chance of rocking the markets next week are FOMC Minutes on Wednesday & the revised Q1 GDP numbers on Thursday. For those of you who don’t know, The Federal Open Market Committee Minutes are the transcripts released from the last Fed Meeting (Where they made the interest rate decision). Yes, this can seriously move markets.

Significant News Heading into 05.23.2022:

• Stocks head for another potentially treacherous week, as a slew of retailers report earnings

• Hong Kong’s Hang Seng falls as tech stocks slide; Xpeng shares plunge ahead of earnings

• European markets climb despite fears for global growth; Stoxx 600 up 1%

• Covid cases are surging again—here’s what to expect this summer, experts say

• Russia dominates nuclear power supply chains — and the West needs to prepare now to be independent in the future

• Curbs Tighten in Beijing, Key Port City: China Lockdown Tracker

Follow on Twitter

PAID CONTENT IN THE PAYWALL BELOW: (BUY LIST WILL BE UPDATED SOON)

• A Detailed Breakdown of Yesterdays Earnings Beats & Misses

• Most Recent Insider Buys/Sells

• IPO Lockup & Quiet Period Expirations

• 1 Stocks near/at/above the Buy Zone (Waiting to Swing).

• 1 Options Strategy

• 19 Stocks on the Price Based Assessment Watchlist 3 Stocks on the Stocks Under $20 List (Read the Warning/Disclaimer) 2 Stocks on the Highly Speculative Highly Volatile Small Cap List (Read the Warning/Disclaimer) 5 Stocks on the short possibilities list

👉CLICK HERE TO SEE THE DETAILS OF EVERY STOCK ON THE BUY LIST (AND SEE THE PRICE ASSESSMENT BASED WATCHLIST / THE STOCKS UNDER $20 LIST & THE HIGHLY SPECULATIVE LIST)

LOGIN INSTRUCTIONS: You will need to login to see the detailed list. The “email login link” will send the link to login directly to your inbox (Click the link & it will automatically log you in). You can also choose the “login with password” option. You will need to set up a substack password for this option.

Follow on Twitter