WE’RE ON YOUTUBE NOW! See HERE & HERE (Yeah … I’m REALLY excited about this).

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Before you Trade Today: Know the Economic Calendar! Also See This Weeks Most Anticipated Earnings. NEVER BE SURPRISED BY EASILY ANTICIPATED MARKET BREAKING NEWS. That’s our goal here.

PAID SUBSCRIBERS: In the paid section we still have one short play (legging in slowly). I’m currently 1.59% in the green on the play. For the reason’s you’re about to read, I think shorts may have a good week. Target garbage to get the most of it! As per the norm I have included insider buys'/sells’, & earning results from the previous trading day.

ECONOMIC NEWS: There WILL BE NO SURPRISE when the Fed raises interest rates this week. We know it’s either going to be 75 or 100bps. But neither of these numbers will come in as a shocker. The market want’s this & expects it. When/if the market dumps early this week, if at all, it will be reported by financial news outlets that, “the primary reason for market uncertainty is the upcoming Fed rate hikes.” This could not be further from the truth in my view. The real bombshell comes in Thursday, the day after (Q2 QoQ GDP Growth Rate). As of Friday morning last week, the analyst consensus QoQ GDP Growth Rate was +0.9%. How do I know this? I checked it and linked it last Friday. What is the analyst consensus today? Revised +0.4%! And if that isn’t uncertainty enough, this absolutely contradicts the Atlanta Fed GDP tracker. What’s the scoop here? My assessment is below.

I think Powell will come out & announce at rate hike between 70-100bps. He will state the economy is strong, he will claim the labor market is tight, he will observe unemployment is low, he will acknowledge the declining housing market, he will note that wages are still increasing, he will speak to nominally increasing retail sales, he will commit to tackling inflation with additional QT & similar rate hikes (with perhaps a small one month break or so) & he will surprise NO ONE with this news. The markets will rally, as if all is going to plan, but the markets will fail to observe the elephant in the room that will slap them in the face the following day … Thursday’s GDP data. And as the GDP data will be reported at 08:30ET, there’s nothing anyone can do prior to market open but brace for impact. Hilarity will ensue.

Indeed you know things are … well … just fun … when they attempt to brush off a possible recession by redefining what a recession is.

WORLD MARKETS:

• Stock futures are little changed as Wall Street braces for a busy week of earnings, Fed meeting

• Hong Kong’s tech stocks drop as Asia markets mostly fall

• European markets set for lower open in a big week for earnings and monetary policy

RECOMMENDED:

• Markets face what could be the most important week of summer with Fed, earnings and economic data

• How the Fed’s escalating fight against inflation is hitting the hot housing market

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