WE’RE ON YOUTUBE NOW! See HERE & HERE (Yeah … I’m REALLY excited about this).

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Before you Trade Today: Know the Economic Calendar! Also See This Weeks Most Anticipated Earnings. NEVER BE SURPRISED BY EASILY ANTICIPATED MARKET BREAKING NEWS. That’s our goal here.

SPECIAL NOTE: THIS POST MAY BE TOO LONG FOR EMAIL. YOU CAN EITHER EXPAND THIS IN YOUR EMAIL OR VISIT THIS POST DIRECTLY ON SUBSTACK.

PAID SUBSCRIBERS: In the paid section I have a special treat for you. I took the liberty of loading a bunch of retailers that will be affected by yesterdays WMT guidance. Still have one short play (legging in slowly). I’m currently 4.66% in the green on the play. Of course I included insider buys & yesterdays earnings results.

WALMART SLASHES EARNINGS (READ THIS!): Retailers everywhere will have a bad day today. However this will not end with the retailers. It is imperative that you pay attention to the various retailers & assess, through their earnings calls & 10Q’s, which segment is taking the largest hit. Yes, discretionary retail is hit the most. But a lot goes into discretionary retail. Identifying which segments have the most backed up inventory will be essential to understanding their order flow. Retailers do not generally replace inventory they have an over-abundance of. And this has implications on the firms that make those goods & services … which has implications on materials, chemicals, energy, inputs, etc. Toy’s, electronics, auto-parts, home-improvement, gardening, makeup, etc. It’s all relevant! If video games sales are low, this has implications for Sony, Game Stop, Microsoft, EA, & many more. If computer sales are low it has implications for HP, DELL, & even other retailers like Best Buy.

With all that said their savior will be (may be) Black Friday. They will need to move that inventory! This means slashing prices. And that generally comes from high volume low margin sales during the holidays. However this remains to be seen. Remember that the inventory they purchased is highly inflated. Expensive inventories demand expensive prices to profit, no matter how small, lest they are willing to take a loss. You can bet WMT is tracking this & considered it when slashing their earnings outlook. They will no doubt accept some red in some segments on Black Friday. It’s like selling a failing stock. Sometimes its just better to cut your losses & look elsewhere! Same when it comes for retail inventory. Great for inflation, … horrible implications for jobs, GDP, & the firms that supply retailers.

As indicated above, moving product during Black Friday remains to be seen. (Note: I’m talking about Black Friday early because it’s important that you consider this before the general market does! I’m looking one to two quarters out … not living in the moment). Remember that last year the discounts were lackluster. This year the discounts may look relatively good, but once we account for the new normal of high inflation, there’s a good chance that in terms of nominal prices, prices may be higher still than Black Friday 2021. This may mean they will have a tougher time moving inventory during the holidays. Black Friday’s require people to splurge to be successful. Who is splurging with inflation & uncertainty this high? And if people do splurge, this will have profound implications on Spring of 2023.

Now you understand why Walmart’s $WMT reduced earnings guidance is such a bombshell. YOU CAN ASSESS A LOT OF THE BROADER MARKET THROUGH WALMART. If you hit any earnings call this season, listen in on Walmart & $AMZN . The sector to sector second & third order effects will be apparent to critical thinkers. This is also why I included a number of retailers to pay attention to in the paid section below.

LOOKING BACK: Remember I have long said the consumer was going to get priced out of the market due to inflation; that people were going to cut back on their wants & economize on their needs. No duh huh? Well try doing it all the way back in October of last year! I also noted that this will be the first full quarter to price in the high energy prices, China lockdowns, & the war in Ukraine. For the patient, this is playing out nicely! Nearly everything I’ve been tracking & reiterating to StockTips subscribers is playing out in the markets. It’s like the post covid boom, but in reverse, & it ain’t over! The profit opportunities are PLENTIFUL for shorts!

ECONOMIC NEWS: I said my piece for this week yesterday. Pretty much sums it up.

WORLD MARKETS: Stock futures fall after Walmart cuts forecast, says inflation hit consumer spending. U.S. Treasury yields edge lower ahead of key Fed decision. European markets muted with earnings, Fed meeting on the agenda; UBS down 6%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up 1% as Asia indexes mostly rise; South Korea GDP beats estimates

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