IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a registered investment adviser, broker dealer, or member of any other association for research providers in any jurisdiction whatsoever & I am NOT qualified to give financial advice. Investing/Trading in securities, particularly microcap securities, is highly speculative & carries an extremely high degree of risk. The information, analysis, & opinions listed above are my own & may not properly reflect the underlying conditions of a company or security. You should do your own Due Diligence. Past performance does not guarantee future results. If you trade based on anything I have written YOU ACCEPT FULL RESPONSIBILITY AND LIABILITY for your own trades & actions & hold the author of this publication harmless. If that isn’t clear enough DO NOT TRADE, ACT, OR INVEST, BASED UPON ANYTHING I WRITE OR RECOMMEND. There, we should be solid now.

Follow on Twitter

Before you Trade Today: Know the Economic Calendar! Also See This Weeks Most Anticipated Earnings. NEVER BE SURPRISED BY EASILY ANTICIPATED MARKET BREAKING NEWS. That’s our goal here.

PAID SUBSCRIBERS: I am considering some major changes but I haven’t got them lined up just yet. That short play? I covered & flipped it into an Iron Condor (Expiring Next Month) to salvage the loss. … & it’s STILL kicking my ass. The changes I’m considering is making the whole newsletter paid & significantly lowering the price of a subscription. But before I do that I need to consult with substack because there are some provisions I would like to make for long term subscribers, & I want to ensure I get it right. There are so many changes I want to make, but I want to get this right first.

I had to work through the weekend so I apologize for not having this weeks earnings ready. Will be updates tomorrow. For now todays earnings estimate is posted below.

Leave a comment

CONSENSUS INFLATION EXPECTATIONS ARE LOWER: I checked the consensus inflation data this morning. The YoY inflation cut this Wednesday is expected to come in at 8.7%, likely as a result of decreasing gas prices. YoY core inflation is expected to rise to 6.1%. Month over Month numbers are expected to rise with inflation increasing 0.2% & Core inflation 0.5%. I think from here the inflation rate will seesaw as energy prices fluctuate, but still increase over time. However, the true threat to increasing prices is the hot job market. So as long as the labor force participation rate remains low, & unemployment remains low, firms will need to pay more & more for scarce labor, which means more & more of that cost will be passed to the consumer. Remember that for most firms labor is the number one expense.

THE INFLATION REDUCTION ACT GOES TO BIDEN’S DESK: I think we all know that the inflation reduction act isn’t going to lower inflation. The name was a gimmick that few fell for. Many of the provisions will not be in effect for a number of years. It seems thus far the market is pricing in the long term benefit of the bill for green energy companies, without necessarily taking into account the long term tax implications. The Bill raises taxes by a minimum of 15% for businesses making $1b or more in INCOME. Meaning if the business makes a billion dollars in profit, they will pay at minimum 15% on that profit. It also levies a 1% tax on share buybacks … so expect a round of buybacks before this bill takes effect.

If you are confused as to how this will work for businesses you may be invested in, there is a good breakdown here:

“Companies with at least $1 billion in income would be required to calculate their annual tax liability two ways: one using longstanding tax accounting methods, which is 21% of profits less deductions and credits; the other by applying the 15% rate to the earnings they report to shareholders on their financial statements, commonly known as book income. Whichever amount is greater would be what they owe.” WASHINGTON POST

WORLD MARKETS:

• Stock futures rise following S&P 500′s third winning week in a row

• European stocks climb as traders assess earnings, economic data

• Tech stocks drag Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lower; Asia markets mixed

Follow on Twitter