Good morning. Let’s basketball.

The Lacemaker; Johannes Vermeer; 1669-70

In a move almost no one saw coming, Giannis Antetokounmpo signed a contract extension with the Milwaukee Bucks on Monday. The deal — three years, $186 million with a player option — was not anticipated in part because the most prominent salary cap guru in the media, ESPN’s Bobby Marks, has been saying up and down the T.V. screen and podcast booth that Giannis could have made much more money by signing an extension next summer. And it wasn’t just Marks: every cap guru out there was agreeing. All the cap-aware beat writers and columnists and podcast hosts. I didn’t hear anyone this summer claim that there was a way in which it made financial sense to sign an extension now. Heck, even Giannis was parroting this fact on media day.

“I don’t remember where I said it, but I said it did not make sense to sign a contract right now because money isn’t important, but a lot of f—— money is important, so I’m going to sign it next year,” Antetokounmpo said during the Bucks’ media day ahead of the upcoming season.

Apparently Giannis, his representation and the Bucks front office figured out the math. From Woj’s story linked at the top:

Because of the Over-38 rule in the CBA, Antetokounmpo can sign a short-term deal again with the Bucks in 2026 and another four-year extension in 2028.

I’m no longer a cap guru. The complexity has exceeded my capacity. But what it looks like here is that Antetokounmpo and the Bucks are planning two contracts ahead, with everyone just assuming — probably accurately — that Giannis will remain one of the very best players on the planet and that Milwaukee will be competitive. It’s a pretty incredible turn of events made more incredible by the fact that the cap gurus (and Giannis himself) just seemed to … miss the fact that Antetokounmpo could play a longer game here.

Before the Damian Lillard trade, this had set up to be a maximally pressurized season for the Bucks. Mike Budenholzer was let go after the embarrassing 4-1 first round loss to Miami, the team hired a first-time head coach in Adrian Griffin and re-signed aging Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton and Giannis gave that interview to the New York Times hinting that he might not always be a Buck.

Then the Dame trade happened, and then this happened, and now … still a pressurized season — the team is a top-tier title contender with a bad taste in its mouth from the last postseason, and Dame isn’t exactly all that young either — but not nearly the potential downside if it falls apart.

This is a coup for Adam Silver in the sense that he has spent a good deal of his commissionership fighting wanton player movement and pushing salary cap tweaks to empower incumbent teams in transactions. It’s working! It would foolish, of course, to not also note that it worked in helping the Portland Trail Blazers keep their homegrown star Dame Lillard with increasingly large contracts … until he decided he wanted to play elsewhere. So there is still that, possibly, eventually. It’s nothing worth discussing on T.V. or podcasts or in this here newsletter. But it should be acknowledged before being forgotten. Nothing is forever, but right now must feel pretty damn good for Bucks fans.

In related news, Bobby Marks’ producers told him to turn on the camera and rant about Bucks fans trolling him over the extension, and it makes for pretty compelling stuff.

The Bucks fans accusing Marks and other high-profile cap gurus of ulterior motives are off the, uh, mark. What they should be asking is why no one — especially a former GM — saw this coming. High-end players have been thinking two contracts ahead for more than a decade. (The LeBron, Wade and Bosh mini-maxes circa the 2006 offseason were my introduction to this ploy.) In many cases, the cap gurus do consider players’ next contract in explaining why a 2+1 or short-term deal makes sense. Why not here, with the most important potential free agent possibly of the decade? What got missed? That’s what I’m interested in.

Schedule

It’s opening night of the 2023-24 NBA regular season! We have two enormous, important games and a ring ceremony. All times Eastern.

Lakers at Nuggets, 7:30, TNT
Suns at Warriors, 10, TNT

No Draymond Green for Golden State, so I suspect we’ll get Chris Paul starting against Devin Booker.

Links

Still no James Harden in Philadelphia.

More extension news! Onyeka Okongwu is sticking with the Hawks. The Mavericks lock in Josh Green. The Timberwolves ink Jaden McDaniels, setting up a very high cap sheet in next season. Cole Anthony gets a deal in Orlando. The Pacers pay Aaron Nesmith.

Another report that the Warriors and Klay Thompson are far apart in contract negotiations. I’m going to put my flag in the dirt here: Klay Thompson will retire a Warrior. They will figure this out.

Really good primer from Tim Bontemps on what’s going on with the regional sports network situation for NBA teams. I think one of the most important stories that is almost never talked about nationally is how hard it is for Coloradans to watch Nuggets games that aren’t on TNT or ESPN/ABC. They have the best player on the planet and have to watch illegal streams or get a VPN to see him play the 60 times he’s not on national TV. It’s disgusting!

Tom Haberstroh on Grizzlies’ skepticism.

John Schuhmann’s always enlightening Power Rankings on NBA.com.

Marc Stein’s latest Power Rankings are here, too. I’ve been reading Marc Stein Power Rankings for almost 20 years?!

David Thorpe at TrueHoop projects the win totals for all 30 teams.

Apologies for the Twitter thread, but Rob Perez reviews all 30 city edition jerseys. Most of them are indeed pretty awful.

Haven’t watched this yet but Thinking Basketball is great and the OKC pick-and-roll is one of the more interesting tactical wrinkles going.

The legend Emma Carmichael with a piece in GQ on Che Flores, the first out nonbinary trans referee in NBA history. Representation matters, and this is a crucial time given the attacks on trans rights in America. (Proof that representation matters, from the piece: Flores realized becoming an NBA official was attainable when they say Violet Palmer officiating an NBA game.)

It sounds like the Big3 is trying to get the U.S. Department of Justice to smack the NBA over allegedly trying to squash the 3-on-3 league.

There are a number of great quotes in this Joe Vardon piece on the final stage of LeBron’s career for The Athletic. Here’s one:

“For 21 years, you never get in trouble, to be able to take in his family, protect this family, raise his kids the right way, you know, be happily married, all those things, it’s perfect,” Antetokounmpo said. “He’s kind of like setting the blueprint for the rest of us to go forward. That’s what I want. I want to be able to do what I do on the court consistently, be good, be healthy, be available for my team, be able to, you know, raise my family in a bubble away from what I do on the court for them to have a normal life as much as I can. Stay out of trouble.

“And hopefully one day, you know, when I’m done from the game of basketball … maybe you mention me? I don’t know. But he sets up the blueprint for all the athletes that enter the NBA to follow.”

Michael Pina’s predictions.

It was a tremendous treat to open my podcast app on Monday and see a new episode of The Right Time With Bomani Jones waiting for me! Great stuff on simply enjoying the Victor Wembanyama experience in there.