Penn slips on worsening ESPN Bet guidance
Penn slips on worsening ESPN Bet guidancePenn’s negative guidance, DraftKings’ customary beat/raise, VICI NFI’d, Rush Street’s share push +More
What if I'm down? What if I'm out? Penn’s negative guidanceFree falling: Penn Entertainment’s shares dropped by over 17% in early trading before recovering some ground to finish the day off by nearly 9%, after the company lowered guidance across the business and increased estimated ESPN Bet losses by $100m.
Missing in action: The guidance came after what Deutsche Bank suggested was a “sound” Q1, albeit one hit by weather-related issues in B&M gaming and hold issues with ESPN Bet, which led to group Q1 revenues falling 4% to $1.61bn while adj. EBITDA dropped 46% to $236m.
Potholes: CEO Jay Snowden admitted Penn had not been as “tight and accurate” with its forecast for ESPN Bet as it had hoped and added that no “nascent” online strategy came without “bumps in the road.”
No pressure: One specific improvement will come with the hiring of new CFO Aaron LaBerge, who joins from ESPN itself and who Snowden identified as bringing an “immediate accelerant turbocharge in everything we are working on with ESPN.”
Bonus balls: Likely to boost the numbers, at least in terms of revenues, will be the imminent launch into the New York OSB market, which will happen before the start of the next NFL season. But when asked whether this would lead to a further increase in promo spend, Snowden played down the potential of a big spike.
The song remains the same: Macquarie analysts suggested the same question remains unanswered post-earnings over the chances of ESPN Bet succeeding and argued there are now concerns over the average revenue per user.
Feel the burn: Macquarie noted that Penn’s losses are now on a scale with DraftKings’ largest loss during its customer acquisition phase of $314m but slightly better than Caesars’ mammoth peak of a negative $554m. 120 Days To Comply Frictionless affordability checks are required from 30 August 2024. No time to waste – email michael@dotrust.co.uk and join other leading operators including Rank and Lottoland on the leading dedicated platform for financial assessment. DraftKings’ shining lightAnd the beat goes on: DraftKings released its Q1 numbers AMC showing revenues up 53% to $1.18bn, while adj. EBITDA moved from a $222m loss in the prior-year period to a profit of $22.4m. Truist said the earnings “provided a bright spot in an otherwise dim Q1 earnings season so far.”
Everything flows: New CFO Alan Ellingson said in the earnings release that the company expects adj. EBITDA flow-through to exceed 50% for FY24. The updated guidance doesn’t include recent acquisition Jackpocket, which will be incorporated once the deal is concluded. It’s a gamble, bud: The DB analysts noted the upgrades came despite the hold challenges in Q1 before adding a comment about the debate over this issue. “The hold dynamics have been tiring,” they suggested. “It has been a chronic discussion across all of gaming and all geographies with gaming. It is gambling after all.”
iCasino of the beholder: The team also pointed to an expected increase in iCasino margins. “Development of technology and more efficient data are supporting higher expected gaming margins, leading to high flow-through improvements to the business model,” they added. Diary note: DraftKings will conduct a call with analysts later today. See Monday’s E+M for more. +MoreGames Global has announced its IPO timetable, with a series of investor meetings leading to the price of the sale of 14.5m shares owned by Zinnia. 888 has priced its £400m of senior secured notes at 10% and has entered into a multi-currency £50m revolving credit facility that matures Dec25. The proceeds will be used to repay existing debt and will reduce the total by £18m. Read acrossWord up: In the debut edition of the Token Word, an Isle on Man-based crypto assets business called Soteria has seen its license to operate suspended by the island’s financial regulator due to shared director ties with similarly IoM-based gaming operator King Gaming, which was the subject of a series of arrests late last week. Rules of the game: In Compliance+More, the UK Gambling Commission finally set out the new rules for, among other things, its vulnerability checks and confirmed a pilot for the financial risk checks. Coverage is here and here. What we’re readingA commercial break: The number of gambling ads on TV in 2023 fell by 21% compared to the year previous, according to statistics provided by Nielsen for the AGA. Via Bloomberg.
VICI call recallThey were careless people, Tom and Daisy: Ed Pitoniak, CEO at the gaming REIT, started off the call with analysts with a critique of Gatsby-esque US equity trends. “A fair part of the S&P 500 packed into a house and held a magnificent party,” he said. “But to be clear, American REITs were not invited to this party.”
Boats against the current: In response, Pitoniak said VICI just keeps on “doing what we do”, which includes expanding the scope and TAM for the company’s investments beyond just the gaming sphere.
Close to home: In Las Vegas, COO John Payne said the company was looking at expanding its partner footprint in the Locals and Downtown sectors. “Those are great segments of the business that we simply don’t have real estate or partners yet along the way,” he added. Will you be at SBC Summit North America (May 7-9)? Visit GeoComply and explore how we help protect the business of leading operators globally, with geolocation, fraud prevention, and streamlined licensing. Find us at booth A120! The shares weekRush of blood: Rush Street Interactive soared by nearly 18% on Thursday after posting positive earnings AMC Wednesday, leaving the shares up over 26% for the week so far. The team at JMP said they “get the sense Rush Street is feeling positive around underlying fundamentals.”
🚀 Rush Street soars post-earnings Analyst takes – Bally’sWhatever you want: The debt team at CBRE suggested the news on the trio of major developments on the company’s slate at present, including the Tropicana, Chicago and New York, was very much a “status quo” situation. With Chicago, the team noted that details are still to be announced over the financing plan.
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Venture capital firm Yolo Investments manages in excess of €500m in capital across 100 exciting fintech, gaming and blockchain companies. The Yolo Investments' Gaming fund, regulated by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission, has taken positions in fast-growth suppliers and operators, including Dabble and Enteractive. Yolo Investments (yolo.io) wants to hear from readers of this newsletter. Get in touch with your pitch, or for a chat about innovative products which can plug into our investment ecosystem. An +More Media publication. For sponsorship inquiries email scott@andmore.media. |
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