In a largely underwhelming speech filled with cliches and tired tropes, JD Vance stood on stage at the Republican Convention and re-introduced himself to the nation. Vance’s personal story of growing up in Appalachia is familiar to many people. His memoir was a gigantic bestseller and became a Netflix movie starring Jodi Foster. The story is powerful and compelling. Vance’s story — and his ability to tell it — is also the only reason he is in the Senate and was on stage accepting the vice presidential nomination.

Vance’s experience is scant. He was a former Marine, venture capitalist, Hollywood producer, and CNN political commentator. He arrived in the Senate eighteen months ago and did nothing of real consequence in that brief period.

Trump views Vance’s story as an asset on the campaign trail with a certain segment of voters. According to Vance, Trump told him:

You can help me win. You can help me in some of these Midwestern states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and so forth.

Multiple reports state that the Trump campaign plans to park Vance in the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania because of his appeal in the Rust Belt. Trump won those states in 2016, but lost them in 2020. Winning those states (plus the second district in Nebraska) is Biden’s best — and perhaps only — path to 270.

Vance's appeal to Rust Belt voters seems plausible on paper. But is there any evidence to suggest it will work?

Underperformed in Ohio

The question about Vance’s appeal to blue-collar voters in the Rust Belt states is not theoretical. He was on the ballot in Ohio in 2022 and it went poorly. Despite Democratic successes elsewhere, 2022 was a great year for Ohio Republicans — except JD Vance. He won by 6 points, but dramatically underperformed every statewide Republican. Governor Mike DeWine won by 25, the State Treasurer won by 17, and the Attorney General won by 21. Vance didn’t perform worse than other Republicans on the ballot. He simply failed in the exact areas where Trump wants to send him...