Trevor McKendrick - The world is not efficient

Hi all,

The drama continues in the prediction market for whether my weight will be <145 pounds on January 1st.

The price has spiked up & down, including with bets from someone whose username is “Evil Trevor” who bet against me (for the record: I am not Evil Trevor!)

As I write this the price is 62% YES:

My goal is to be at 155 lbs by the end of September. I’m very confident I can lose another 10 pounds in the final 3 months of the year, holidays be damned.

Check out the market & place a bet here. It’s really fun having a stock price related to a personal goal.

Trevor

When Saddam Hussein held a public purge (YouTube)

He gives a talk and starts calling out names of people in the audience. You did not want your name called.

How to Succeed at Mr. Beast Productions (document)

This feels like old news now but I read every word and think it’s worth reading if you’re ambitious.

What I noticed was:

1) How specific he was about their goal.

2) How much he hated bureaucracy, even some of which is probably necessary

3) How he sometimes hedged even though you know he wanted to go all the way.

”Founder Mode” Discussion(tweet)

Patrick Collison’s take on Founder Mode. Self-recommending.

”I just fundamentally don’t believe the world is efficient” (tweet)

Nat Friedman’s thoughts & curiosity on why people don’t do more things. See also Nat’s personal website.

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Older messages

Useful and Overlooked Skills

Monday, September 16, 2024

Hi all, (Sorry about the formatting last week, small hiccup that has now been fixed.) Fun news: last week I had my lowest weigh-in since October 2021. It's been fun to see my Manifold prediction

Why John Carmack worked for Steve Jobs

Monday, September 9, 2024

Hi all, 55 people have bet on my Manifold prediction market on whether I'll be 145 pounds the morning of January 1, 2025. It's been funny & motivating to see so many people bet NO, driving

I started a prediction market for my weight

Tuesday, August 27, 2024

Hi all, I started a prediction market for my weight on Manifold 26 days ago. The prompt is “Will I weigh <145 pounds by Jan 1, 2025?” It will resolve to YES if my weigh-in on the morning of Jan 1,

Great tweets

Tuesday, August 20, 2024

Hi all, Have a great week! Trevor Great tweets “I'm a Jew but let me tell you, "As He died to make men holy, let us die to make men free" is platinum tier, top-shelf, cannot be beat

Sabbath Hard and Go Home

Monday, August 12, 2024

Hi all, I got back last week from the Olympics, it was fantastic. I thought the Olympics might be dying a bit after Tokyo 2020 but I feel like this year in person and online were the best they've

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