Trevor McKendrick - The world is not efficient

Hi all,

The drama continues in the prediction market for whether my weight will be <145 pounds on January 1st.

The price has spiked up & down, including with bets from someone whose username is “Evil Trevor” who bet against me (for the record: I am not Evil Trevor!)

As I write this the price is 62% YES:

My goal is to be at 155 lbs by the end of September. I’m very confident I can lose another 10 pounds in the final 3 months of the year, holidays be damned.

Check out the market & place a bet here. It’s really fun having a stock price related to a personal goal.

Trevor

When Saddam Hussein held a public purge (YouTube)

He gives a talk and starts calling out names of people in the audience. You did not want your name called.

How to Succeed at Mr. Beast Productions (document)

This feels like old news now but I read every word and think it’s worth reading if you’re ambitious.

What I noticed was:

1) How specific he was about their goal.

2) How much he hated bureaucracy, even some of which is probably necessary

3) How he sometimes hedged even though you know he wanted to go all the way.

”Founder Mode” Discussion(tweet)

Patrick Collison’s take on Founder Mode. Self-recommending.

”I just fundamentally don’t believe the world is efficient” (tweet)

Nat Friedman’s thoughts & curiosity on why people don’t do more things. See also Nat’s personal website.

Share the newsletter…

Here’s a link to today’s newsletter: https://ckarchive.com/b/5quvh7hv4766qcp5xxd52a94g7v44tn

Sign up for the newsletter…

If you got this from a friend, you can sign up to get the newsletter for free every Monday morning here



Older messages

Useful and Overlooked Skills

Monday, September 16, 2024

Hi all, (Sorry about the formatting last week, small hiccup that has now been fixed.) Fun news: last week I had my lowest weigh-in since October 2021. It's been fun to see my Manifold prediction

Why John Carmack worked for Steve Jobs

Monday, September 9, 2024

Hi all, 55 people have bet on my Manifold prediction market on whether I'll be 145 pounds the morning of January 1, 2025. It's been funny & motivating to see so many people bet NO, driving

I started a prediction market for my weight

Tuesday, August 27, 2024

Hi all, I started a prediction market for my weight on Manifold 26 days ago. The prompt is “Will I weigh <145 pounds by Jan 1, 2025?” It will resolve to YES if my weigh-in on the morning of Jan 1,

Great tweets

Tuesday, August 20, 2024

Hi all, Have a great week! Trevor Great tweets “I'm a Jew but let me tell you, "As He died to make men holy, let us die to make men free" is platinum tier, top-shelf, cannot be beat

Sabbath Hard and Go Home

Monday, August 12, 2024

Hi all, I got back last week from the Olympics, it was fantastic. I thought the Olympics might be dying a bit after Tokyo 2020 but I feel like this year in person and online were the best they've

You Might Also Like

What people want in 2025 (results)

Thursday, December 26, 2024

Last month we asked people what they wanted to build in 2025 ⬇ ​ ​ There were ~200 respondents with their 2025 goals: You can see 240+ responses here in the comments. Here were the most common terms

The Scrum Master Salary Report 2025 Needs Your Support: We Need Another 600 Participants

Thursday, December 26, 2024

Help to Move the Survey Beyond the 1000 Participants Threshold ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏

• Promo Super Package for Authors • FB Groups • Email Newsletter • Tweets • Pins

Wednesday, December 25, 2024

Newsletter & social media ads for books. Enable Images to See This "ContentMo is at the top of my promotions list because I always see a spike in sales when I run one of their promotions. The

Wardley mapping the LLM ecosystem. @ Irrational Exuberance

Wednesday, December 25, 2024

Hi folks, This is the weekly digest for my blog, Irrational Exuberance. Reach out with thoughts on Twitter at @lethain, or reply to this email. Posts from this week: - Wardley mapping the LLM ecosystem

🤝 Where the Magic Happens as a Biz Buyer

Tuesday, December 24, 2024

For Goodness' Sake, Know Why You're Doing It Biz Buyers, If you're new here, welcome to Main Street Minute — where we share some of the best tips, tools, and ideas from inside our Main

• New Year's Day Newsletter Promo for Authors ● Reserve Your Spot

Tuesday, December 24, 2024

Book Your Spot Now in Our New Year's Day Holiday Books Email Newsletter ! ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ Book Your Spot in Our New Year's Day Email Newsletter Enable Images

24 SEO Tips for 2025 (Free PDF Inside)🎄

Tuesday, December 24, 2024

New year, new strategy – your guide to 2025 SEO success is here! Hi Reader, Merry Christmas! 🎅✨ I hope you're enjoying a cozy holiday season. As we look toward 2025, it's the perfect time to

Why The American Military Pretends to Track Santa Claus

Tuesday, December 24, 2024

They know when he's been sleeping, they know when he's awake. ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

• Affordable Kindle Unlimited Promos for Authors •

Tuesday, December 24, 2024

Affordable KU Book Promos "I'm amazed in this day and age there are still people around who treat you so kindly and go the extra mile when you need assistance. If you have any qualms about

Level up like you are using cheat codes 🎓

Monday, December 23, 2024

Become CXL certified ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏