I’m Isaac Saul, and this is Tangle: an independent, nonpartisan, subscriber-supported politics newsletter that summarizes the best arguments from across the political spectrum on the news of the day — then “my take.”

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A couple weeks ago, I made my final predictions about the 2024 election. 

In that post, one of my headline predictions was that Vice President Kamala Harris would win Pennsylvania but lose the election. I also argued that Trump had a path to winning in Michigan, that Democrats would win the House, and that Republicans would come away with 53 seats in the Senate.

Since then, the race hasn’t fundamentally changed, but it has developed in a lot of interesting ways. I’ve been jotting down notes over the last few weeks and today, I’m emptying my notebook as we head into the final days of the race.

So: Here are 25 thoughts with four days to go until Election Day.

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