• Watch and wait may – or may not – be the best approach in Brazil.

• In +More: Wynn buys Crown London as ‘conduit’ for UAE customers.

• Tipico buys Novomatic’s Austrian Admiral business.

• Las Vegas catches a flat in November on disappointing F1.

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The waiting game

Go big: The opening of the regulated market in Brazil has caused much excitement particularly for the 67 recipients of definitive and provisional licenses.

• Or go home: But those without a presence as yet may well hang back to see how the first six months or more play out before committing to an entry strategy.

• Sources noted the number of licensees initially going to post, 67, was down on the 182 that originally applied.

The prize: The promise of the Brazilian online market is clear: the analysts at Vixio suggested on the cusp of the market opening that it could be worth $2.9bn in annual GGR this year rising to $6.8bn by 2028.

• But as with other gray markets that have switched to being regulated without any cooling off period, Brazil is likely to have a very familiar feel at the top end.

• Analysts believe current market leaders Betano, Superbet and bet365 are all but certain to feature at the head of the market.

• Similarly, Entain’s brands, Flutter’s Betnacional and Betfair, and local hero brands, such as KTO, Estrela Bet and Aposta Ganha, are all likely to transfer their existing footprints into the regulated space.

The NSX factor: Ahead of the market launch, the most significant piece of Brazilian-related M&A came with Flutter’s $350m purchase of a controlling stake in NSX, the owner of the aforementioned Betnacional.

• The bid to gain control of what Flutter hopes will be a podium position in the market was thought likely to spark further deals.

• Sources suggested other talks certainly did take place between companies that did not have an existing position in Brazil and key local heroes.

• But they added that any potential deals are now likely to wait on the early evidence for the winners and losers before buyers take the leap.

“Flutter’s was a ballsy move,” suggested one M&A consultant, who spoke to E+M on condition of anonymity. “Others are sitting on their hands to see what happens,” said another industry consultant source, who also opted for anonymity.

• “The question is, as an operator, whether you feel you need to be there now or whether you avoid the firefight for six months,” said the M&A consultant.

Compass points: Paul Leyland from Regulus Partners pointed out the first few months will be difficult to navigate for every participant. A lot of this is around the level of initial marketing spend, with some very big sums likely to be deployed in the initial months.

• “One of the big questions is whether a previously profitable market is destroyed by huge sums of marketing being thrown at it by multinational operators with little local expertise.”

• Organic growth, he noted, “nearly always beats M&A.” But buying a mid-size business “can also make sense with the right management and integration plan.”

The name most often mentioned as being interested in buying its way into Brazil is DraftKings. While the company has consistently said it is concentrating on the US opportunity, the potential in Latin American is thought to entice.

• “There is no doubt they are looking at Brazil,” said the industry consultant.

Cautionary tale: Sources suggested the focus on its home market means DraftKings is necessarily more cautious about international M&A than Flutter. But the worry for DraftKings or any other company taking the wait-and-see approach is that the market will likely develop very quickly.

• “The development of the market depends a lot on compliance, and the big danger is a large market which is found to be non-compliant on scrutiny,” said Leyland.”

Buying the title: The dilemma, then, for companies still on the sidelines is whether to buy now with all the attendant risk of not picking a winner – or wait until the market has found a settled shape and then pay the premium needed to buy one of the winners.

• “Would you rather buy something that you know is already a winner or buy something now that has the potential to be a winner? It’s a question with no easy answer,” summed up one sector specialist.

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+More

Who wears the crown? Wynn Resorts has bought London casino operator Crown London, which operates Aspinalls, from Australia’s troubled Crown Resorts for an undisclosed sum. The deal is expected to close in the second half of this year.

• Wynn Resorts CEO Craig Billings said the move complemented its Wynn Al Marjan Island being developed in the UAE.

• The acquisition of an “iconic asset” in Mayfair will “create a conduit” for visitors to its global resorts, he added.

• The storied Aspinalls has a checkered past having been founded by the controversial John Aspinall in the 1960s.

Star Entertainment: In a brief statement to the ASX, the even more troubled Australian casino group said its cash reserves had nearly halved since the end of September to A$79m ($49m).

• The company said the available cash included the impact of the first A$100m tranche of the new debt facility.

• It said the deterioration of its cash reserves reflected the “continued difficult trading conditions.”

• Star added that it “continues to work towards the fulfillment of conditions” that must be met in order to draw down the additional A$100m under Tranche 2 of the new debt facility.

Delaware North has selected Playtech to power its Betly OSB and iCasino operation. The partnership will launch first with Betly Ohio, with operations in Arkansas, Tennessee and West Virginia to be migrated in the coming months.

Penn Entertainment has announced a further 10 sportsbooks across its casino estate will become ESPN Bet books, subject to regulatory approvals.

• This will bring the total to 19 ESPN Bet-branded outlets, spanning Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

Read across

Exit stage left: In Compliance+More, the outgoing chair of the US derivatives regulator, Rostin Behnam, said he was concerned about the legality and social impact of political and event betting, which became an issue in the recent US election campaign.

+More careers

The big move: Evolution has this week announced the imminent replacement of its CFO, with previous incumbent Jacob Kaplan to step down and be replaced by Joakim Andersson next month.

• Kaplan joined Evolution in 2016. Andersson has been CFO at several Swedish-listed firms.

• He joins at a time when Evolution remains the subject of a licensing review on the part of the UK Gambling Commission.

Simon Johnson is the new CEO of the Light & Wonder’s iCasino business. Johnson has been with Light & Wonder since 2017 and was most recently SVP and international MD. Separately, the company has promoted Glenn Huybrecht to VP and managing director of its Asia division.

Imagine Live has appointed Martin Martirosyan as CEO, He will continue to retain his position of deputy CEO of parent company Digitain.

BlueBet has confirmed the previously announced appointment of Matthew Tripp as chair following its merger with Betr is now completed. Tripp succeeds Michael Sullivan, who will remain on the board as a non-executive director.

Ernesto Perez has been appointed director of technology at Pragmatic Play. Perez was most recently CTO at Boldplay. The latter firm has also confirmed that Valli Fragoso has stepped down from his role of director and CEO following the acquisition by Openbox.

• Chief Technology Officer – Armenia

• Head of Campaign Management – San José, LatAm

• Payment Product Owner – Malta

Profit and schloss

Viennese twirl: Tipico has moved to broaden its footprint in German-speaking countries via the acquisition of Austrian sports-betting and retail gaming operator Admiral from Novomatic for an undisclosed sum.

• Tipico is buying the Atlas Group from the gaming machine provider. Atlas operates up to 250 retail betting outlets and a further 150 slot halls and claims to control 50% of the Austrian betting and gaming market..

• In the accompanying press release, Tipico CEO Axel Hefer said the deal was an “important milestone” for the company as it strengthens its positioning in the German-speaking world.

Tipico is the acknowledged sports-betting market leader in Germany with an online operation and a 1,300 strong retail betting estate. It has been owned by private equity group CVC since 2016.

• Last year it gave up on its US ambitions, selling its US-based platform to MGM for an undisclosed sum.

Grün and bear it: For its part, Novomatic said the sale would allow the business to concentrate on its international growth markets. Under the Admiral brand it operates sports-betting and iCasino in Germany, the UK and Spain and now ex-Austria.

• Just this week, Novomatic’s UK business, Greentube Alderney, was the subject of a £1m regulatory settlement with the UK Gambling Commission over RG and AML failures.

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By the numbers – Las Vegas

Catching a flat: The Las Vegas Strip suffered a 4% reverse in November with baccarat GGR down 18%, as this year’s F1 race failed to ignite in the same fashion as 2023’s inaugural event. Locals were also down 5% YoY.

• While visitation was up 1%, the team at Truist noted that Strip RevPAR and ADR metrics were down 22% and 21% respectively YoY.

• The team suggested this reflected the well-publicised “softness” ahead of this year’s F1.

Getting worse before it gets better: The analysts at Deutsche Bank noted December is up against a tough comp from 2023. The team is anticipating a high single-digital YoY GGR decline.

• Note, the November numbers had also been up against a record high from 2023.

• The team at JMP said consensus estimates suggested MGM and Caesars will report 3% and 5% EBITDAR declines in their Las Vegas businesses for Q4.

Plain sailing: But the JMP team noted February would be the last of the tough comps – up against the Super Bowl this time last year – “setting up the remainder of the year to face more traditional comps on the Strip.”

Connections

The big deal: Inspired Entertainment has announced that bet365 is to become the first customer to offer hybrid dealer roulette in the UK later this quarter.

• Hybrid dealer roulette is the second such game brought to market by Inspired and is designed to mimic a live casino experience.

• Meanwhile, Inspired and Caesars have launched the Caesars Big Money online slot game developed exclusively for Caesars Palace iCasino.

QTech Games will carry online slot games from Clawbuster under a content partnership. Revolver Gaming’s online slot games are now available on Regal Technologies’ Sweepslots brand. ThrillTech can now distribute its jackpot product in the Netherlands after receiving certification from the KSA.

Play’N GO has launched 50 of its iCasino games in Brazil. Meanwhile, Paysafe’s payment services are live in Brazil after the company received a payment institution license from the country’s central bank to operate in the newly regulated iGaming market.

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Earnings calendar

• Jan 22: Las Vegas Sands

• Jan 23: PointsBet

• Jan 29: BlueBet

• Jan 30: Evolution, Rank

• Jan 31: Red Rock Resorts

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