Welcome back to Home Economics, a newsletter about American housing.

The Census Bureau released 2023-24 population estimates yesterday. The data showed large coastal cities returning to growth after shrinking during the pandemic years. International in-migration was the main driver.

But New York and Los Angeles are hardly the picture of urban health. They both continue to leech more than 100,000 people per year to other parts of the country, especially the suburbs surrounding large sunbelt cities.

• New York-Newark-Jersey City added 72,000 residents through natural growth (births minus deaths) and gained 287,000 from international migration, while simultaneously losing 147,000 through domestic outflows, resulting in a total population increase of 213,403.

• Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim saw 33,000 natural growth and 130,000 international migrants against a domestic loss of 122,000, narrowly achieving a positive growth of 41,214 people.

• Chicago-Naperville-Elgin gained 19,000 through natural increase and 96,000 residents internationally while losing 45,000 domestically, for a net increase of 70,762.

• Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach added just 12,000 through natural growth but received 213,000 international migrants, which more than compensated for a domestic loss of 101,000, producing a robust growth of 123,471 residents.

"Increasingly, population growth in metro areas is being shaped by international migration," explained Kristie Wilder, a Census Bureau demographer. "Rising net international migration is offsetting the ongoing net domestic outmigration we see in many of these areas."

Sunbelt Metros Benefit from All Three Growth Components

While coastal cities rely heavily on international migration, Sunbelt metros are experiencing more balanced growth from all three population components:

• Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington grew by 177,922 people, combining strong natural increase (51,000) with international migration (103,000) and positive domestic migration (25,000).

• Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands added 198,171 residents, with healthy natural growth (49,000), substantial international migration (128,000), and positive domestic migration (21,000).

• Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta increased by 75,134 residents, with natural growth (27,000) and international migration (50,000) doing the heavy lifting as domestic migration remained flat.

This multi-faceted growth advantage is a key reason why Texas and other Sunbelt states lead the nation in population gains. Texas added 562,941 people (1.83%) in 2023-2024, with all three components contributing: natural increase (158,753), international migration (319,569), and domestic migration (85,267).

Regional Differences in Natural Population Change

Even if natural population change is fairly steady from year to year, the Census data shows some interesting and significant regional variations by geography.

The West and South regions show the strongest natural growth:

• West Region: Natural increase of 187,986 (0.24% of population), with a birth rate of 10.39 per 1,000 residents outpacing the death rate of 8.02.

• South Region: Natural growth of 218,567 (0.17%), with the highest regional birth rate at 11.24 per 1,000 versus a death rate of 9.57.

• Northeast Region: Modest natural increase of 59,344 (0.10%), with birth rate (10.02) barely exceeding death rate (8.98).

• Midwest Region: Minimal natural growth of 52,741 (0.08%), with a birth rate of 10.62 against a death rate of 9.86.

Several states are now experiencing a natural decrease in population where deaths exceed births.

Florida, despite being the second-fastest growing state overall (+467,347 residents), actually lost 7,321 people to natural decrease, making its robust growth entirely dependent on migration. Other states with a natural decrease include Pennsylvania (-9,311), West Virginia (-7,844), Maine (-5,157), and Oregon (-3,731).

The Suburban Shift Intensifies

Population growth is increasingly concentrated in suburban counties surrounding major metropolitan areas, not in the urban cores themselves.

In Texas, for example, our county-level analysis shows striking differences between urban core counties and their suburbs:

• Harris County (central Houston) gained 35,833 residents through natural increase and 101,126 through international migration, but lost 31,165 to domestic outmigration.

• Dallas County (central Dallas) added 19,625 through natural change and 47,564 internationally, but lost a substantial 47,168 domestically.

But both of these cities are ringed by fast-growing suburban counties:

• Kaufman County (Dallas suburbs) saw modest natural growth (1,447) and international migration (588), but explosive domestic in-migration (9,158) – representing nearly 5% of its population in a single year.

• Montgomery County (Houston suburbs) gained 3,956 through natural increase, 6,480 internationally, and a staggering 23,919 domestically (3.34% of its population).

This suburban preference is consistent throughout the country. Census Bureau data shows 65.3% of all U.S. counties grew last year, with large suburban counties showing the fastest rates of expansion.

For housing markets, infrastructure planners, and economic developers, the message is clear: international migration is providing a vital lifeline to coastal urban centers, but the long-term momentum of American population growth continues to favor Sunbelt suburbs.