America is experiencing a demographic transformation that varies dramatically by state. Our analysis reveals a country increasingly divided not just politically, but demographically—with profound implications for investment, development, and the distribution of economic opportunity.

Boom belts: Texas, Utah

“Boom Belts”—our name for the states that dominate the top right quadrant of the schematic shown above—are where birth rates are high and death rates are low.

Propelled by a culture that encourages early marriage and big families, Utah leads the nation with both the highest birth rate (13.2 per 1,000) and lowest death rate (6.3 per 1,000), creating an impressive natural population increase of 6.9 per 1,000 residents.

“We marry earlier, tend to stay married, have kids earlier and have more of them,” explains Pam Perlich, a University of Utah economist​. This pattern extends to metropolitan areas like Provo-Orem-Lehi, which shows an extraordinary natural increase of 12.0 per 1,000—the highest among all major metro areas in the country.

Meanwhile, Texas tallies about 12.7 births per 1,000 people versus only 9.1 deaths​, thanks to an influx of young families and a relatively small senior share. The Houston metropolitan area, for example, maintains a birth rate (12.7 per 1,000) that's more than double its death rate (6.2 per 1,000). Even as a strong economy and affordable housing attract migrants from across the country and abroad, fueling population growth, about half of Texas’s growth still comes from natural increase.

All five metros with the highest natural population growth in the entire country are in Texas and Utah.

Hollowing Heartlands: Maine, West Virginia

In stark contrast, the states we include in “Hollowing Heartlands”, in the bottom left quadrant—notably West Virginia and Maine—face existential demographic challenges with low birth rates and high death rates.

West Virginia has the highest death rate in the nation at 13.9 per 1,000 residents. It suffered a natural decrease of 4.4 per 1,000 residents in 2024. In McDowell County, West Virginia, the situation is dire with a natural population decrease of 15.4 per 1,000 residents. The death rate (23.4) is nearly triple the birth rate (8.0). Economic stagnation—especially the decline of the coal industry in Appalachia—and limited rural healthcare access compound the problem, leaving behind communities that are growing older and smaller with each passing year.

Southern Cycles: Louisiana, Mississippi, etc.

In parts of the Deep South, both birth and death rates rank among the nation’s highest. Mississippi and Louisiana have birth rates around 12 per 1,000 (higher than average)​, reflecting cultural traditions of larger families and earlier childbearing.

At the same time, chronic health challenges and poverty drive up mortality: Mississippi’s life expectancy is only about 72 years —the lowest of all states​—and roughly a fifth of its people live in poverty​. The result is that these states rely on high fertility to sustain growth, even as poor health outcomes lead to shorter life expectancy and persistently high death rates.

Heartland Nurseries: Indiana, Kansas, Iowa

The “Heartland Nurseries” of the Midwest (top middle) maintain healthy birth rates while experiencing medium death rates, positioning them for modest but sustainable growth. These states are home to many family-oriented communities with affordable living and strong rates of marriage, helping keep fertility near the replacement level.

Iowa, for example, recorded about 11.5 births and 10.7 deaths per 1,000 residents​, indicating a healthy natural increase.

However youth retention is a looming challenge is. As many young adults leave rural Midwest towns for coastal cities or booming Sun Belt states, they take future births with them.

Indeed, much of the rural Midwest is losing young people to domestic migration​, undermining long-term growth. Demographer William Frey cautions that the demographic “winners and losers” will be determined by “what we see in those younger years — whether there is growth or decline in the under-18 population”​.

For the Heartland to thrive, it will need to hang onto more of its next generation.

Coastal Calibrators

Many coastal states exhibit low mortality and only modest birth rates, reflecting both their affluent, educated populations and high cost of living.

Residents of New York, Massachusetts, and California tend to delay starting families and have fewer children on average. Moreover, as urban policy analyst Robert VerBruggen notes, many ultra-expensive, “hip” cities have become less “family-friendly,” prompting young adults to curb their childbearing or move to more affordable areas to raise children​.

Massachusetts, for example, sees roughly 9.9 births per 1,000 people​—on the lower end nationally. This is true across major coastal metro areas. Fertility has fallen well below replacement; the average woman in San Francisco or Boston is projected to have only about 1.6 children, compared to over 2 in many interior metros​.

That said, excellent healthcare and higher incomes in these states mean people live longer, healthier lives, contributing to their low death rates. The death rate in Massachusetts is around 9.0, kept low by one of the longest life expectancies (about 79 years)​.

This dynamic—few births, but a long-living population—calibrates coastal populations toward slower natural growth, even as they continue to prosper economically.

Silver Havens

Perhaps most intriguing are what we are calling the “Silver Havens”, like Florida (bottom middle), where low birth rates but medium-high death rates reflect their status as retirement destinations.

This is starkly illustrated in Florida's Sumter County—home to The Villages retirement community—which has an extraordinarily low birth rate (3.6 per 1,000) combined with a death rate nearly five times higher (17.3 per 1,000), creating a natural population decrease of 13.7 per 1,000. Despite this, the county continues to grow through domestic in-migration (+28.6 per 1,000).

Four of the five metros with the highest natural population decline are in Florida and Pennsylvania.

There are significant commercial implications of these demographic patterns.

America's states and regions are experiencing drastically different demographic trajectories, even as they operate within the same national economy. This demographic divergence will influence development and investment for decades to come.