CB Insights - Tesla — wow

Hi there, 

Let me start by saying I think Elon Musk is a legend. So to all you Tesla and Elon fanboys and fangirls, please don’t blow up my inbox when you read the comments below.

Ok, I’ll come back to Musk and Tesla in a second.

First, let’s talk about Andreessen Horowitz’s annual Marketplace 100, which the firm released last week. In it, the firm ranks the top 100 private consumer marketplaces globally. It provides a great look into the categories and companies building the next big marketplace businesses.

For those that want to look at the full list and associated data, we’ve created an A16Z Marketplace 100 Collection. If you don’t have a CBI account, you can create one here.

In the collection, you will find the companies ranked 1-100 by A16Z, alongside each company's competitors. You can also filter by A16Z category tag, investor, geography, total funding, and more. Below is an excerpt of marketplace companies ranked 11-21 along with their investor, competitor, funding, and category data.

Once in the Collection, you can auto-create a market map like the one below using the A16Z category tags (or you can create your own tags). Yup — we built a market map maker cuz the best minds of the next generation shouldn’t be Ctrl+C’ing and Ctrl+V’ing for logos on Google Images.

Dig into the A16Z Marketplace 100 Collection here and the data Dossier here.

Turning up the heat
 

US banks are actively investing in fintech startups to future-proof their businesses. 

From insurance to blockchain, check out where the top US banks have concentrated their bets in fintech over the past decade in this heatmap.

Healthcare anywhere

Telehealth companies raised a record $10.5B across nearly 600 deals in 2020. 

Clients can see over 170 startups, from wellness platforms to telepharmacies, driving the industry forward in this market map. 

Super bull

Last week, hedge fund Ark Invest, an investor in Tesla, came out with a $3000 price target on the EV maker by 2025 (currently at $620’ish). It was a masterclass/playbook in integrating marketing with data analysis.  

• The model is on Github (that means there is code & stuff which = fancy)

• It used a Monte Carlo simulation with 34 inputs (dang, that’s a lot of inputs)

• It incorporated 40,000 simulations (40,000 simulations — holy isht)

• It had a bull, bear, and base case (Ark's being complete and exhaustive)

Right now, Tesla is $620’ish. The Ark bear case pegged the price at $1500, the expected value at $3000, and the bull case at $4000.

The forecast assumes that Tesla would be an EV company, an insurance company, and an autonomous ride-hail company. And that it’d be really big in those other businesses where it is a zero today. And that autonomous ride-hailing is a thing by 2025.

No sooner had the model been issued than publications started writing about the price target, resulting in a quick stock bump for Tesla.  

Alright, alright. This is where the fans say you should never bet against Elon. I get it. This isn’t a comment on Tesla or Musk.  

I do think Ark’s strategy here is actually quite fascinating. If you look for it, you’ll see the strategy it's employing is one that many others are using deftly these days. This is getting long enough so I’ll save the components of that strategy for another day.

If you’d like to read a review of the price target model, this tweetstorm by Chris Bloomstran is a good starting point.  

Tesla and Elon admirers — praying you don’t blow up my inbox. Let’s be friends.

Wall Street Journal. Clément Bürge (@ClementBurge) discusses stablecoins with CB Insights senior analyst Alex Kern (@AlexKernA). 

Business Insider. Shoshy Ciment (@ShoshanaCiment) covers ThredUp’s IPO and quotes CB Insights managing analyst Thomas Sineau (@TSineau). 

American Banker. Penny Crosman (@pennycrosman) uses CB Insights research and interviews CBI analyst Oliver Yu (@yuo526) in her coverage of US banks’ fintech investments.
 

P.S. Technology is bringing behavioral underwriting to P&C insurance. How? Find out in our upcoming webinar. You can register here.

P.P.S. Into power generation? We’re hiring a senior energy analyst. Check out the position here.

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