Bloomberg - Evening Briefing - Why China might lose

When will China overtake the U.S. to become the world’s biggest economy? Few questions are more important to the future of business and geopolitics. The Chinese Communist Party, which is celebrating its 100th anniversary, wants you to believe the rise is inevitable. But a new analysis from Bloomberg Economics says it may never happen. —Margaret Sutherlin

Bloomberg is tracking the progress of coronavirus vaccines while mapping the pandemic worldwide. 

Here are today’s top stories  

A stalemate over production at the OPEC+ meeting roiled oil Tuesday. After hitting a 6-year high, the crude rally turned to a rout just hours later, emphasizing how the cartel’s internal rifts threaten the stability of the global economic recovery. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks fell and yields hit the lowest since February. Here’s your markets wrap. 

Microsoft’s $10 billion cloud-computing contract was scrapped by the Pentagon. After several years of wrangling, the government said instead it plans to divide the work between Microsoft and rival Amazon.com. The Pentagon may have some additional problems to contend with in cyberspace: Russian government hackers breached the computer systems of the Republican National Committee last week, around the time a Russia-linked criminal group unleashed a massive ransomware attack, according to two people familiar with the matter.

Dangerous weather is pummeling the globe as climate change intensifies weather patterns. Temperatures in cities far above the Arctic Circle hit record highs and wildfires are raging in British Columbia and Siberia. Just days after a heat dome killed dozens in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, the West Coast braces for another round of high temperatures and much of the East Coast is under excessive heat advisories. A strengthening tropical storm is expected to make landfall in the U.S. as a hurricane. It’s all happening just as summer gets underway.

Just days after its U.S. public offering, China-based ride hailing app Didi Global plunged on concerns over data security and a broader Chinese state crackdown on companies listing their shares abroad. China said it has opened a security review and demanded app stores remove Didi.

Despite growing infections and warnings about “long Covid,” the U.K. is plowing ahead with plans to ease self-isolation restrictions for fully vaccinated people. Meanwhile, the delta variant continues to spread: Russia reported record deaths while Indonesia and Bangladesh struggled to contain rising cases. The African Union reported 15 million doses are ready for distribution. Here’s the latest on the pandemic.

It’s not just America’s older condominium buildings that are showing their age, as was the case in the deadly collapse of a condo in Surfside, Florida. The condominium form of ownership itself is under strain say some economists.

Who wants a shorter work week—with the same pay? Results from two trials in Iceland showed workers with reduced hours were just as productive and had no decline in service levels. Oh, and employees reported less stress and an improved work-life balance.

What you’ll need to know tomorrow 

• There’s a new front in the White House showdown with big tech.
• How is Wall Street handling hybrid work? Here’s your running list.
• China’s version of Twitter says there’s no chance it is going public. 
• A Congressman says he can’t be sued for the Capitol insurrection. 
• State lawmakers proposed 300 voter access restriction bills this year.
• Nike’s founder gave another $500 million to his alma mater. 
• Subway sandwich “artists” aren’t so revolutionary now in fast food.

Sponsored Content The highest living penthouse in Europe  Penthouse in Federation Tower is a unique property for sale in Moscow, Russia. Penthouse located on the 95-97th floors covered with a glass dome. It will be a new starting point for a person who has reached all imaginable heights. Federation Tower is the best complex in the world.  Worthy of your status.  Sotheby's International Realty

Tesla’s Cautionary Tale of Betting on Beijing

It wasn’t too long ago that Elon Musk got the red carpet treatment in China. After Tesla received the unprecedented concession of allowing it to wholly control its local subsidiary, the carmaker is now being forced to rethink its strategy, from customer service to public relations, in a market that’s key to Musk’s long-term ambitions. Here’s how things went sour.

Like getting the Evening Briefing? Subscribe to Bloomberg.com for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and gain expert analysis from exclusive subscriber-only newsletters.

Sustainable Business Summit Global: On July 13-14, Bloomberg will bring together corporate leaders and investors to discuss innovation and best practices in sustainable business and finance. This global event will span key markets and time zones, leveraging Bloomberg’s unrivaled expertise to focus on the risks and opportunities faced by executives and forward-thinking investors. Register here.