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Before you Trade Today: Know the Economic Calendar! Also See This Weeks Most Anticipated Earnings (Note: Red on the Earnings Calendar Indicates an Earnings Loss [Not Miss] Consensus), & Yesterdays Insider Buys. NEVER BE SURPRISED BY EASILY ANTICIPATED MARKET BREAKING NEWS. That’s our goal here.

StockTips is NOW on Odyssey. It’s like discord but better in my opinion

TODAY’s OBSERVATIONS: There is a lot of information to process when assessing as to whether there will be a recession in our future. There’s a lot of denial as well. These are the things you pay attention to:

• Retail Sales: Look for a slowing in retail sales … particularly discretionary spending.

• Credit Card Debt: Look for increasing credit card balances. If they’re increasing it means people are relying more on credit to make ends meet.

• Slowing Housing Market: Look for a slowing housing market with respect to new home & existing home sales & mortgages. Keep an eye on foreclosures!

• Inventories: Look for an increase in inventories. This is not a great indicator because inventories vary depending on how businesses are run. However large inventories that they cannot move imply people aren’t buying as much.

• Declining Imports: Look for a slowdown in imports. Slowing imports means firms are ordering less goods under the expectation that they will not be able to offload the goods they have now.

• Decreasing Savings: A decrease in savings can indicate that folks are having a hard time managing finances.

• Unemployment Claims: If the unemployment claims tick up, it means more people are getting laid off.

• Non-Farm Payrolls: A decline in non-farm payrolls indicate less job creation.

• Lower Company EPS/Inflation Adjusted Revenue: If earnings per share are declining, it means that their profit margins are declining. Likely because they need to offload goods that no one is buying by decreasing prices on expensive (inflated) inventory.

• Decreasing Wages: If wages are decreasing or stagnant it means less spending power, & a cooling labor market.

• Continued Inflation: So as long as inflation remains above 2%, oil/gas/natural gas remains high, food remains high, utilities remain high, rent/housing remains high, people will be paying more for their needs … which means less spending on their wants. Discretionary retail is the canary in the recession coal mine.

• A good place to research the aforementioned items is TRADING ECONOMICS

ALWAYS REMEMBER: The pain does not come from the inflation boom … the pain comes from the inflation bust. Bear markets are traditionally bad times to go long, however, they also experience the largest rally’s (due to short covering).

EXISTING HOME SALES YESTERDAY: Existing home sales came in at consensus 5.41m when 5.4m were expected. Month over month that’s a decrease of -3.4% for May.

FED CHAIR POWELL TESTIMONY: Jerome Powell is testifying before Congress today & tomorrow (See economic calendar). God only knows what that will bring. My expectations are less than optimal for the bulls here. Yesterdays market decline & today's low stock futures were easily predictable if you paid attention to the economic calendar (above). If there is a market rally before the Fed Chair testifies to congress you can usually make a quick buck on playing the negative price action on uncertainty alone.

TODAY’s WILD CARD: The Atlanta Fed last revised their Q2 GDP estimate to 0%. Q1 GDP came in at -1.5%. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth puts us in a technical recession. I believe the Atlanta Fed has another revision due out today. Will be interesting to see.

• Dow futures decline more than 400 points as market rebound fizzles

• European markets slide, giving up gains made earlier this week; Stoxx 600 down 1.6%

• Chinese stocks tumble as tech shares in Hong Kong fall; oil drops more than 4%

GAS TAX HOLIDAY: It's official as of a few hours ago. Biden is asking for a 3 month Federal Gas Tax Holiday . This will increase the demand of oil/gas & lead to additional inflation. Sure, you will pay less at the pump for now .. but the holiday does nothing to address the underlying supply issues.

EARNINGS REPORTED ON 22 JUNE 2022:

BUY LIST UPDATE: It’s always tough after a market dump to add either long or short plays. Be patient folks. All of the suggested short plays I posted earlier worked marvelously! But I’m hesitant to add more given the market lows. It seems to me that shorts are holding & when they cover the markets will rally.

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PAID CONTENT IN THE PAYWALL BELOW: 1 Stocks on the BUY LIST near/at/above the Buy Zone (Waiting to Swing) / 1 Options Strategy / A Detailed Breakdown of Yesterdays Earnings Beats & Misses / Most Recent Insider Buys/Sells / IPO Lockup & Quiet Period Expirations / 10 Stocks on the Price Based Assessment Watchlist / 3 Stocks on the Stocks Under $20 List (Read the Warning/Disclaimer) / 3 Stocks on the Highly Speculative Highly Volatile Small Cap List (Read the Warning/Disclaimer) / 6 Stocks on the short possibilities list.

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