Bloomberg - Evening Briefing - This gauge says no recession

Bloomberg Evening Briefing

The US junk bond market is forecasting that the economy may weaken, but won’t tip into a recession. The indicators come as Federal Reserve officials vow to continue to fight inflation aggressively, even if higher rates increase the risk of a downturn. But some strategists and money managers think credit markets aren’t paying enough attention to how bad any potential upcoming downturn could be. 

Bloomberg is tracking the coronavirus pandemic and the progress of global vaccination efforts.

Here are today’s top stories

US stocks snapped a two-day decline as corporate earnings and economic data came in better than expected. Treasuries trimmed losses as traders priced in further interest-rate hikes from the Fed. Solid reports from vaccine-maker Moderna and PayPal pushed the Nasdaq 100 up as much as 3%, taking it to a level last seen in May. The S&P 500 closed up 1.6%. Here’s your markets wrap.

In roughly 24 hours, Chinese officials and propagandists went from warning of confrontation to pleading for patience as Beijing struggled to articulate a cohesive response to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s landmark trip to Taiwan. Ahead of Pelosi’s visit, Chinese leader Xi Jinping warned the Biden administration would get “burned” while nationalist Chinese commentators suggested she would “ignite the powder keg.” Yet after Pelosi landed safely, stayed the night in Taipei and hailed US-Taiwan ties in a meeting with President, China’s tone shifted from belligerent to defensive.

US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, center left, meets Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen, center right, at the president’s office on Wednesday in Taipei. Photographer: Handout/Getty Images AsiaPac

Republican nominees for statewide office who subscribe to Donald Trump’s falsehoods about the 2020 vote could—if they win in November—hold sway over elections in four states, all battlegrounds. The prospect significantly accelerates the two-year-old GOP effort to restrict access to voting in states it controls while placing partisans in charge of deciding if elections are fair.

Tesla hosts its annual meeting on Thursday from its new plant in Austin, Texas, where the biggest item on the agenda is a likely shoo-in proposal clearing the way for a 3-for-1 stock split. With Elon Musk though, who knows what will happen.

It’s “wishful thinking” to expect relations between Russia and the West to return to their pre-war status soon after the fighting stops in Ukraine, as the Kremlin appears bent on creating a buffer between itself and NATO, Romania’s prime minister warned. Meanwhile, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres skewered Big Oil, saying it’s “immoral for oil and gas companies to be making record profits from this energy crisis” spawned by Vladimir Putin’s war. He called for nations to impose excess profit taxes.

Romania’s prime minister, Nicolae Ciuca Photographer: Andrei Pungovschi/Bloomberg

President Joe Biden predicted the threat to abortion rights would drive people to the polls in November after Kansas voters rejected an effort to strip abortion protections from the state constitution. Speaking before signing an executive order on abortion access, Biden called the surprise Kansas vote a “decisive victory.”

The smaller version of his “Build Back Better” plan hashed out by Senate Democrats would reduce federal budget deficits by $102 billion over 10 years, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said. In addition, the CBO calculated that increasing the Internal Revenue Service budget would generate $204 billion in new revenue from cracking down on tax avoidance, something that wasn’t included in the official deficit score. When that’s factored in, the CBO analysis is in line with the $300 billion in deficit reduction claim initially made for the bill by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin. The bill, if passed, would among other things mark an unprecedented American effort to fight global warming. But there’s just one problem: Kyrsten Sinema. A major beneficiary of Wall Street largesse, the Arizona Democrat may be positioning herself along with 50 Senate Republicans to blow up the historic deal unless she gets changes that favor big corporations and fund managers.

Kyrsten Sinema  Photographer: Sarah Silbiger/Bloomberg

What you’ll need to know tomorrow

Does Sports ‘Recovery’ Tech Actually Work?

The “recovery” technology industry claims to help athletes bounce back after training. Players have endorsed everything from massage guns to cryo-chambers, and even professional sports leagues are getting in on the action. But the science behind many of these products is questionable—at best. On this episode of “Business of Sports,” we explore how the industry got its start, how recovery tech has become really big business, and how even if there isn’t a lot of peer-reviewed research behind it, what stars are using on the sidelines, in locker rooms and at home might help them excel in unforeseen ways. 

Older messages

Beijing fumes

Tuesday, August 2, 2022

Bloomberg Evening Briefing View in browser Bloomberg US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi became the highest-ranking American politician to visit Taiwan in 25 years—drawing expected criticism from China,

Pelosi takes on China

Monday, August 1, 2022

Bloomberg Evening Briefing View in browser Bloomberg US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is expected to visit Taiwan on Tuesday, ignoring Chinese threats of reprisals if her trip to the island democracy

No one knows for sure

Saturday, July 30, 2022

Bloomberg Weekend Reading View in browser Bloomberg Follow Us Get the newsletter So is it a recession or not? The US economy shrank for a second straight quarter, which to some technically means a

Wall Street hits a homer

Friday, July 29, 2022

Bloomberg Evening Briefing View in browser Bloomberg Euro-zone inflation climbed to another all-time high, supporting calls for the European Central Bank to follow up its first interest-rate hike since

Sobering data

Thursday, July 28, 2022

Bloomberg Evening Briefing View in browser Bloomberg Thursday brought more sobering data as far as the recession-risk debate is concerned. The US economy shrank for a second straight quarter with high

Margin Call

Friday, October 7, 2022

Plus: Consumer Health, HSBC ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

The Daily StockTips Newsletter 10.07.2022

Friday, October 7, 2022

(Published 7:30 AM ET MON-FRI) ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

Wall Street: Why the banks won't ditch Musk

Friday, October 7, 2022

The latest in finance. View in browser INSIDER INSIDER Subscribe 10 THINGS ON WALL STREET Morning, Michelle Abrego here from a sunny New York City! Who might not be seeing much daylight right now?

🐚 Shell-shocked

Thursday, October 6, 2022

Shell gave a profit warning | Retail sales dropped in the eurozone | TOGETHER WITH Hi Reader, here's what you need to know for October 7th in 3:10 minutes. ☕️️ Hopefully your daily Finimize

Safe haven no more

Thursday, October 6, 2022

Bloomberg Evening Briefing View in browser Bloomberg Equities found little encouragement to sustain any rebound attempt on the eve of the all-important US jobs report, with major benchmarks finishing

Nobel laureate Paul Krugman warns the Fed risks going too far in fighting inflation - and predicts a return to rock-bottom interest rates

Thursday, October 6, 2022

The renowned economist noted that rate hikes have a delayed effect, and the US labor market is showing signs of cooling down. View in browser Business Insider Business Insider Business Insider

Wall Street: Musk-Twitter saga winners and losers

Thursday, October 6, 2022

The latest in finance. View in browser INSIDER INSIDER Subscribe 10 THINGS ON WALL STREET Hi! This is Dan DeFrancesco checking in from New York. For those who observed the high holy day yesterday,

The Daily StockTips Newsletter 10.06.2022

Thursday, October 6, 2022

(Published 7:30 AM ET MON-FRI) ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

[New post] Bitesize: Riding the waves: the breadth of global monetary policy changes

Thursday, October 6, 2022

BankUnderground posted: " Shaheen Bhikhu and Thomas Viegas Central banks respond to inflation by setting interest rates in order to achieve domestic price stability. Occasionally, economic shocks

FinTech Weekly Issue #384 - Tougher Regulations & Lower Investments

Thursday, October 6, 2022

Issue #384 - Tougher Regulations & Lower Investments 2022-10-06 More regulatory actions could benefit banks, and fintech companies do not face just this problem. In 2022, investments in fintech