Niche Twins - It's a bloodbath 😵

We've all seen the headlines. The news industry is taking a beating...again.

During a period of historically low unemployment in 2023, some 20,000 media jobs were axed in the US last year.

Fast forward to today and it looks like this trend is only picking up steam.

In January of 2024 alone:

• Los Angeles Times: Laying off at least 115 people (more than 20% of its newsroom).
• TIME Magazine: Laying off 15% of unionized editorial staff
• Sports Illustrated: Laying off the majority of its staff over the next 90 days and may not survive
• Business Insider: Laying off 8% of staff
• Forbes: Laying off 3% of staff
• Condé Nast: Looming layoffs of 5% of staff at the parent company behind legacy publications including Vogue, Vanity Fair and GQ has led to picketing and strikes

Why is this happening and what does it all mean?

Earlier this week, the All-in crew had an incredible discussion around the ongoing media apocalypse and I can't stop thinking about a few key points...

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The Math Ain't Mathing

What we're witnesses is really just a continuation of a much larger trend that's been building over the past decade - the flight of ads out of publications and getting placed closer and closer to the point of purchase.

Think Google, Facebook, Amazon and TikTok.

As ad revenue per thousand impressions (RPMs) for traditional media outlets continue to sink lower, they need more and more eyeballs per article just to breakeven. But readership is also trending lower, so that's obviously not happening.

The result? A death spiral.

It's really that simple.

So, what can they do to get the math mathing again?

They can get lean and reduce overhead via continued layoffs. They can put their content behind a paywall, which we are seeing all over the place via paid subscription news.

And oh yeah, they can try to fix the readership side of the equation by getting more and more sensational and in some cases, just flat out lying.

It's this piece that I'm perhaps most fascinated by.

Gell-Mann Amnesia Is Wearing Off

"Show me the incentive, I'll show you the outcome."

Years and years of these broken economics have led to fu*cked up incentives for media outlets to drive clicks.

It's no wonder there has been such a growing lack of trust for centralized new sources.

But this distrust took time to truly take hold, in large part due to what's referred to as Gell-Mann Amnesia.

Everyone has experienced Gell-Mann Amnesia on some level.

For me, it happened most memorably many years ago with Bitcoin (I know, puke...but it's true).

I spent years deep diving the topic, consuming content from various experts in the fields of cryptography, game theory, economics...you name it.

During that time when I'd occasionally turn on the news, I'd listen to these talking heads repeat so many things that I knew to be factually incorrect. Over and over and over again.

I vividly remember turning to my wife one day, visibly in shock at how egregious the lies were.

But the thing is, once this starts happening more frequently, the amnesia bit starts to wear off.

Suddenly, it becomes impossible to forget.

And I think this is where we are today with 'mainstream' media. The lies have reached a tipping point.

The New Media

So the unit economics for old media are a dumpster fire, distrust is at an all-time high and readership is pushing all-time lows.

But those eyeballs (and ears) are going somewhere. But where?

Increasingly they're going direct - to experts and people they trust - the "new media".

Whether it's Twitter, newsletters, blogs or podcasts, audiences are discovering a few people per field that they trust and religiously consuming their content.

And this is where it all circles back to us side hustlers.

There's a sentiment shift I've been observing lately within our own niche community echo chamber that there are somehow "too many newsletters" or "too many podcasts".

The reality is this couldn't be further from the truth.

In so many ways, we are just getting started.

The decentralization of content is only accelerating and opportunities to create and grow trust with an audience are everywhere.

I'll end with this.

Earlier this week Mike made the case that everyone should be putting out content regularly.

Not some people. Everyone.

So what's the field you know well? What topic lights a fire in you? What's your niche?

My challenge to you *yes YOU* is this...

Stop just consuming, go create.

Enjoy the weekend! ✌️

-Keith

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