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If you could only use one word to describe the Ohio State athletic department, you could do worse than “big.”

Ohio State led the country in athletic department operating expenses in FY23, with $274,948,554. It also led the country in reported revenues ($279,549,337). The department sponsors a whopping 36 teams, plays in a football stadium that seats over 100,000 screaming fans, and expects to compete for national titles in multiple sports.

Historically, Ohio State has been able to do that, in large part, due to the success and popularity of their football team. But the basic financial models for big-time college sports are changing, and even Ohio State will need to make major changes to adapt.

I’ve heard senior Ohio State officials, including university president Ted Carter, say that the school doesn’t want to cut any of those 36 sports. I believe them. Not only is a successful, broad-based athletic program a point of pride for the university and fanbase, but dropping any sports also potentially opens the school up for more lawsuits.

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But if the House settlement is approved and finalized as currently written, Ohio State will need to make changes…in how they allocate scholarships, and in how they fund the department.

This quote from Carter, via the Columbus Dispatch, is illuminating:

Carter’s argument here lines up with what I’ve heard not just from other folks around Ohio State, but from ADs and senior leaders from the P4 to the low-majors. It’s time to figure out how to tier your sports, and figure out where you want to go all in, and where you want to offer what is essentially a D-III experience with D-I brands and facilities.

Part of that is about scholarship allocation

As part of the current House settlement terms, current NCAA scholarship limits will be replaced with roster limits, with every school having the option of offering full scholarships up to the roster limit.

For example, currently, Ohio State football is limited to 85 full scholarships. If nothing changes with House, Ohio State could offer up to 105 football scholarships. Instead of 11.7 baseball scholarships, Ohio State could offer 34. Instead of 12 lacrosse scholarships, the school could offer north of 30.

I think it’s a pretty safe assumption that Ohio State will elect to offer more than 85 football scholarships, although it’s unclear if the school plans to go up to the full 105 allotment. I’ve heard from some big time P4 football administrators that they do not plan to go all the way to 105. I think it’s also safe to assume that Ohio State will make some increase in baseball scholarships.

No matter how much money you have, if you want to comply with Title IX, and you want to add ~30 men’s athletic scholarships, you either need to add around that many in women’s athletic opportunities, or you’ll need to make cuts elsewhere in the department. Ohio State believes they will lose “about 150 athletes” due to roster limits, but Title IX may force other tough decisions about where to expand, and where to pull back.

I expect Ohio State, along with many other schools in the Big Ten, to offset scholarship additions in football, baseball and elsewhere with potentially significant cuts in scholarship offerings in other sports. That could theoretically mean that if the men’s swim team currently offers ten scholarships, in the future they might only get three. Maybe men’s track only gets two. Perhaps the men’s volleyball team doesn’t get any.

Earlier this month, Providence College, a Big East school, announced the addition of men’s and women’s golf as varsity programs…but that both programs would be non-scholarship. That’s the model I imagine more programs moving towards, especially in sports like golf, tennis, track or rowing.

I also expect big schools to make operating budget adjustments

Fully participating in athletic revenue sharing means a school like Ohio State will need to spend somewhere in the range of $21ish million a year, plus whatever money is needed on staffing to administer those programs. That money has to come from somewhere, and reductions in coach salary, senior staff salary and scholarship spending almost certainly won’t be enough.

That means some Olympic sport programs could also see budget cuts. The tricky thing, of course, is that there often isn’t that much to actually cut. I’m looking at some of Ohio State’s recent itemized athletic budgets, and it’s not like they’re reporting some massive administrative largess tied to the rifle and tennis programs. Most of Ohio State’s Olympic sport programs report annual recruiting budgets in the five figures, and if you’re not dropping a sport, it’s tough to find huge savings in game costs, coaches or equipment.

One place where you may see budget cuts is in travel costs, where a typical non-football or basketball team spends somewhere between $200,000 and $600,000 a year, based on the FRS reports I inspected. Don’t be shocked if the Big Ten say, decides to stop sponsoring a few sports, or at least decides to not sponsor any regular season competition, freeing schools to schedule regionally to save money. You may also see some schools deciding to play less ambitious schedules, RPI be damned, in order to save money on flights or buses.

I don’t know what the downstream implications of some of these decisions will be

Let’s take men’s volleyball, for example. That’s a relatively niche sport, only sponsored by 28 schools. Ohio State is one of those schools, and is regularly in national championship contention. Let’s say, hypothetically, that Ohio State elects to significantly decrease their scholarship and annual budget for the sport, in order to better invest elsewhere in the department, and the school is no longer a title contender.

If you’re say, Grand Canyon, or Irvine, or Northridge…do you take Ohio State’s retreat as a sign that a national title in men’s volleyball is more possible, and double your own investment? Would the retreat of programs like Ohio State or Penn State make a national title in men’s volleyball less meaningful and worthy of investment? Would it even remain an NCAA sport?

I don’t know! It’s a complicated question. But I know that the decisions that major Big Ten and SEC programs make about sport sponsorship and funding could also impact the decisions that schools from the MAAC to the Big West decide to make in other sports….from hockey to lacrosse, volleyball to baseball.

I’ll continue to make calls about all of this and watch what’s happening in the industry. I don’t expect many schools to make hard and fast decisions on too many budget lines until the House settlement is completely approved and finalized…but with the speed things in the industry are changing, August expectations usually aren’t worth too much in November.

In other news…a Colorado coach tried to do WHAT?!?

I realize this story really warrants 2,000+ words of its own, but I feel like I have to say something about it now.

Earlier this month, Trevor Reilly resigned as special teams coordinator at Colorado. It’s unusual for a coach to resign this close to the start of the season, but unless you’re paying extra close attention to Colorado this season, you’d be forgiven for not paying especially close attention to a special teams coach leaving.

But what Trevor Reilly reportedly told Colorado on his way out the door? Well, that is newsworthy.

Reilly talked with the Colorado affiliate site of Sports Illustrated, and, well…let me just show you.

Dude…what?!?

Both the University of Colorado and Blueprint Sports, the entity who runs the 5430 Alliance (Colorado’s collective), denied any knowledge or authorization of Reilly advocating for Colorado in Saudi Arabia.

I’ve filed a few FOIAs and plan to kick at this story again (hit me up if you know anything!), but a few immediate thoughts:

My gut instinct here is that most of what Reilly is saying is baloney, but it feels reasonable to ask what this dude was supposed to be doing…and why he was allowed to do something other than his actual job for so long. If nothing else, this feels like an HR/management problem.

But if it turns out coaches actually were close to securing collective investments from a foriegn investment fund? Well. That would be worth another story.

Hey, here’s what else we wrote this week:

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I’m going to take the family out for the weekend for one last hurrah before the start of school and the college football season….we’re going to drive up to Minnesota for the Minnesota State Fair. My city children need the opportunity to eat deep-fried ranch, inspect cows, and ride bumper cars for a few hours.

Enjoy Week 0, and I’ll see you on Monday. We’ve got lots more to talk about!fan base