Author: defioasis

The year 2024 could potentially be the most significant year for on-chain development since the DeFi Summer, with narrative-driven investment opportunities emerging frequently on-chain. As observed by the author, with the growing acceptance of the “everything can be a Meme” concept and the dominance of Pump Fun rapid asset issuance, Meme projects can launch from scratch. Even without being listed on top-tier CEXs, the market cap ceiling for on-chain space is approximately $1 billion. For ordinary users, there is already substantial profit potential on-chain, making top-tier CEXs the final step for exiting on-chain investments.

Due to escalating conflicts between VCCoin and its community, new assets listed on top-tier CEXs often underperform, while older projects already listed tend to struggle. These older projects typically lack team motivation or fail to keep up with market changes, opting for a passive approach while waiting for unlocks.

This article primarily provides predictions about on-chain trading and investment, focusing on specific on-chain sectors. It represents the author’s shallow predictions and is not intended as investment advice but rather as food for thought.

(1) DEX/CEX Monthly Volume Ratio Expected to Exceed 20% for the First Time

According to data from The Block, DEX trading volume reached over $320 billion in December 2024, marking a record high for a single month and a year-over-year growth of over 200%. The DEX/CEX ratio for December 2024 stood at 11.64%, up from 9.55% in December 2023, with the highest monthly ratio for 2024 reaching 13.86%. The ongoing optimization of Web3 wallets and other on-chain tools led by CEXs is expected to accelerate the adoption of on-chain trading. Additionally, the booming Meme sector and its wealth effects are among the key drivers encouraging users to migrate from CEXs to DEXs.

(2) The Total Market Cap of AI Agents/AI Meme Will Surpass the Peak of NFTs, with at Least One AI Agents Token Reaching a Market Cap of Over $10 Billion

The integration of AI Agents with tokenization is shaping up to be the fastest-growing narrative in the Crypto market in the second half of 2024. Various types of AI Agents have emerged rapidly. From the early chatbot Truth Terminal (GOAT), which opened the Pandora’s box of AI Agents, to the Eliza framework by ai16z DAO and the Shaw team enabling one-click deployment of AI Agents and their tokens under large language models, all of this has unfolded in just a few months.

Currently, the market features several frameworks in development and operation, including ai16z — Eliza, Virtuals Protocol — Game Framework, arc Framework, Zerebro — Zerepy, and Dolion Framework. Notably, ai16z — Eliza and Virtuals Protocol — Game Framework have established robust ecosystem moats. Subtokens and agents birthed from these frameworks are being rapidly launched into the market.

According to CoinGecko data, the total market capitalization of AI Agents-related tokens has reached $12 billion. Among them, Virtuals Protocol’s VIRTUAL has become the highest-valued AI Agents-related token, with a market cap of $3.5 billion. Acting as the transactional token akin to SOL for the Solana network within the Base ecosystem, VIRTUAL has thrived alongside subtokens like AIXBT, GAME, and LUNA, fostering ecosystem growth and fueling its parent token’s success.

(3) 3–5 Vertical Launch Tracks Based on Pump Fun Expected to Emerge

Pump Fun, operating as a low-cost Launchpad for rapidly deploying tokens on the Solana network, has become one of the most profitable applications in Crypto this year, facilitating the launch of tens of thousands of Memecoins daily. With its rise, other blockchain networks have begun to emulate it, introducing similar Memecoin issuance and trading platforms, such as SunPump on the Tron network, Uptos on the Aptos network, and Clanker on the Base network, leveraging Farcaster.

Additionally, the Memecoin sector continues to expand with the “everything can be a Meme” narrative, leading to stronger demand for segmentation and the emergence of vertical Pump Fun platforms. Examples include vvaifu, focused on launching AI Agents, and Pump Science, centered on DeSci. AI Agents have already grown into a multi-billion-dollar sector, while DeSci is gaining attention, supported by Binance’s emphasis on DeSci and the listing of the representative Bio Protocol.

Essentially, these developments reflect the demand for decentralized token issuance and rapid asset launches inspired by various narratives and imaginations. It is anticipated that more vertical Pump Fun platforms will emerge, giving rise to further niche sectors.

(4) At Least 5 Base Ecosystem Native Tokens to Be Listed on Binance Spot Trading

Binance, a key market indicator, has listed perpetual contract trading pairs for DEGEN, AERO, VIRTUAL, and AIXBT but has yet to introduce any native spot tokens from the Base ecosystem. In terms of user traffic, trading activity, and wealth generation, Base is currently the only Ethereum Layer 2 network capable of rivaling Solana. Unlike Solana, however, the Base ecosystem is more concentrated, with the Virtuals and Farcaster ecosystems leading the charge. The Virtuals ecosystem alone has a market cap approaching $5 billion, positioning it as the leader in the Crypto x AI Agents space. The Base ecosystem is likely the sector with the highest odds for listings on top exchanges. The listing of the first Base ecosystem spot token on Binance seems only a matter of time.

As a network under the U.S.-regulated Coinbase exchange, Base benefits from the integration with Coinbase Wallet, which provides seamless fiat on/off-ramps via Base-USDC directly to bank accounts. With the Trump administration’s return to power and the potential implementation of favorable policies for Crypto, Coinbase and Base are well-positioned to be among the first to benefit.

Furthermore, The appointment of Jesse Pollak, who became part of Coinbase’s executive team in October to lead Coinbase Wallet, further underscores the strategic importance of the Base network in Coinbase’s future plans.

(5) Hyperliquid Will Generate Multiple Spot Opportunities Exceeding $1 Billion in Market

Hyperliquid has significantly boosted community engagement and user interest through large-scale HYPE token airdrops and wealth effects. Currently, Hyperliquid’s Arbitrum Bridge holds over $2 billion USDC, positioning it as a platform equivalent to a 15th-ranked exchange. The total market cap of HYPE once exceeded $10 billion, with an FDV surpassing $30 billion.

Historically, younger CEXs have often started with strong performance and liquidity in derivatives trading, but the true establishment of brand moats comes from exclusive spot assets that drive wealth effects. Hyperliquid’s HIP-1 and HIP-2 standards introduce unique opportunities for exclusive asset listings, an advantage not seen in earlier on-chain exchanges transitioning from derivatives to spot trading. The HIP-1 standard enables direct on-chain token trading, while the HIP-2 standard supports token market performance by embedding liquidity at issuance. With the challenges and high costs of listing on top-tier CEXs, launching through Hyperliquid’s spot listing auctions has become an attractive alternative. Projects like Solv Protocol (SOLV) and Azuki — Anime (ANIME) have already completed auctions on Hyperliquid, although they have not yet officially launched.

Currently, Hyperliquid’s spot market cap and trading volume are heavily concentrated on HYPE, with only two other tokens exceeding $100 million in market cap. Given HYPE’s high valuation, further price surges require substantial funding. Partnering with high-quality exclusive projects to create wealth effects for exclusive assets is evidently a more cost-effective approach. Ultimately, HYPE will benefit from Hyperliquid’s growing trading volume and improved reputation.

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